NBA In-Season Tournament Predictions: Group Winners, MVP, More
The In-Season Tournament begins Friday, and that means it's time to get right to our NBA In-Season Tournament predictions for group winners, MVP and more.
There is a full menu of betting sites to place NBA future bets over the next six weeks including options for Tournament Group Winner and MVP. We’ve never had an opportunity to bet in-season futures on this short of a span.
In the offseason, I used my power ratings to determine the expected win probability of each tournament group stage game. Then, I ran a Monte Carlo simulation to project likely winners thanks to some analytically minded friends. Those power ratings look wildly different in some cases just a few days into the season, but I'm not completely backing off all my priors, either. What follows is my best bets currently including what I bet before the season (pre-flop) and what I would recommend now.
NBA In-Season Tournament Picks & Predictions
EAST GROUP A
In the preseason, I loved the Cavs at +170. Funny story: I was assuming the Cavs would have Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen, who haven’t played yet this season. Now, this beet might have more value by the end of the month, given that the Cavs don’t play the top team in-group (Philadelphia) until the last game of the group stage.
Allen and Garland are listed as questionable for Friday’s first game vs. the Pacers, so there still might be value here. I have the Cavs as the favorite to win the group based on the schedule in preseason power ratings.
Indiana is tough but likely to struggle vs. teams that can match their firepower and bring better defense.
The Sixers are undoubtedly the best team, the rightful favorite, and playing the best of any team in the group. If you like them, doubling up on Tyrese Maxey (+4600) and Joel Embiid to win Tournament MVP (+1600) isn’t a bad position.
Indiana is a trendy, “sexy” pick for an underdog at +550 or longer, but even if they upset the Cavs (potentially without Tyrese Haliburton) on Friday, they go to Atlanta, and then to the Sixers.
Atlanta is interesting. They hit the road to face the Cavaliers and Pistons, but get the Pacers and Sixers at home. The Hawks are an offensive-centric group, so there’s a chance they could wind up with tiebreaker advantage.
Detroit is not worth a play.
Pick: Group Winner – Cavaliers (+170)
East Group B
I bet the Knicks preseason based on my power ratings, but the in-season start warns against that pretty strongly. (I have Knicks currently -3 vs. an average team on a neutral court in my power ratings based on this very small early sample of games.)
Miami was the other value team, but my projections were based on the assumption that Damian Lillard would wind up there. Whoops.
Speaking of, the Bucks are struggling in the early going with Lillard and remain too unstable game-to-game to think they’re worth a bet at a short number. This group is incredibly weak with Washington and Charlotte, so it might genuinely come down to Friday night’s winner in the first group game for the Knicks and Bucks.
Miami has the most favorable schedule. They get the most formidable team (Milwaukee, presumably) at home, and New York’s home court has not been historically as strong as others.
If the Wizards or Hornets win this tournament, it would not be an excellent start for legitimizing the product. Can you imagine Tournament MVP Jordan Poole?
Pick: None, Pass
East Group C
There’s no way for me to recommend anyone but Boston (-150) given how dominant they have been to open the season. The Celtics are undefeated and the best team in the league so far. My preseason projections gave them a 48% chance of winning this group.
The Bulls are interesting here, but they play Boston on the road. I would have made an emotional plea for Orlando, but they are banged up thanks to a tough early-season West Coast road trip.
The Celtics are the best team in the group, and they also have the best half-court offense. So, they should be able to gain an advantage in tiebreakers.
Pick: Group Winner – Celtics (-150)
WEST GROUP A
I absolutely loved Memphis in my offseason projections for this group, but the Steven Adams injury essentially destroyed it. The Lakers are the team that benefits the most from the Grizzlies' utter collapse into disaster.
Does LeBron want to add Cup MVP in the inaugural season to his bursting trophy case? Does he want a December trip to Vegas? Would he rather skip all this? Anthony Davis to win Cup MVP at +2600 is awfully tempting as a result.
The Suns don’t seem ready and still don’t have Bradley Beal, while the Jazz and Blazers are ill-equipped to get wins on the road.
Picks: Group Winner – Lakers (+180), Anthony Davis Cup MVP (+2600)
WEST GROUP B
I’ll find out immediately if my offseason Dallas bet is live when they play Denver in Denver on Friday. The Nuggets are obviously the best team and defending champs, but they’re rough on the road and play the Pelicans in New Orleans. If the Mavericks can steal the first game, I love their chances to make the knockout stage.
If they make the knockout stage, I need Luka Doncic to be the best player out of eight teams for five days. That sounds doable. Luka Doncic at +2300 to win Cup MVP has to be a best bet as such. Even if the Mavericks lose to the Nuggets, there’s a good chance Dallas will wind up taking a wild card spot.
The Clippers may have been the second-best team so far, factoring in strength of schedule, but they have to figure out how to integrate Harden with a shortened rotation, and there’s just no way of knowing how this team will approach the tournament given its rest history. I also don’t like the Clippers' chances vs. Denver, who has always gotten up for them since their Bubble series.
The Pelicans are an attractive option at +440, and as such, Zion Williamson at +4900 to win Cup MVP ain’t too shabby either. I believe the Cup Winner will come from this group, so playing the MVP longshots is a good angle.
Picks: Group Winner – Mavericks (+400), Luka Doncic Cup MVP (+2300), Zion Williamson Cup MVP (+4900)
WEST GROUP C
Minnesota was the highest rated team in the group in my preseason projections, and I still believe they have the best value on the board. The Warriors have indicated they want to win this Cup for Chris Paul, and that motivation factor is intriguing.
Instead of playing a group stage winner, given that the Warriors go to OKC, and then face a division rival in the Kings, Chris Paul to win Cup MVP at +17000 is worth a look, as well as Curry at +1700. But ultimately I’m fine backing the Wolves to win the group and playing the Warriors aggressively if they reach the knockout stage. I also took a flyer on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win Cup MVP at +2600.
Picks: Group Winner – Timberwolves (+400), Shai Gilegous-Alexander Cup MVP (+2600)
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