The Brooklyn Nets (15-46) and Miami Heat (33-29) will square off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from the Kaseya Center in Miami, Fla. The game will broadcast live on FDSSUN.
The Heat are 13-point favorites over the Nets on the spread (Heat -13), with the over/under set at 226.5 total points. Miami is a -800 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Brooklyn is +550 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Nets vs. Heat predictions and NBA picks for Thursday, March 5.
Nets vs Heat Prediction, Picks
- Nets vs Heat pick: Heat -13 (-110)
My Heat vs. Nets best bet is on Miami to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Nets vs Heat Odds
| Nets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13 -110 | 226.5 -110o / -110u | +550 |
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13 -110 | 226.5 -110o / -110u | -800 |
Nets vs Heat NBA Preview
It’s hard to beat a team twice in the same week — unless they want you to.
The Heat and Nets play for the second time in Miami tonight, in what I call a "Duplex Set," where teams face off twice in the same building in a short amount of time.
These games can be tricky, with wonky results.
However, I looked at when teams play in the back-half of the season when one team has a win percentage of better than 50 percent (above .500) and the opponent’s win percentage is below 30 percent (tanking teams).
I would have expected the market to get too far ahead of the game, and for the value to be on the underdog.
Nope. Teams are 68-53-2 (56.2%) ATS in that spot. Home teams are 39-23-1 (63%) ATS.
Nets vs Heat Predictions, Betting Analysis
Heat -13
The Heat are starting to play better basketball now that they are healthier.
Meanwhile, the Nets are still the Nets.
I could give you basketball analysis on how Brooklyn’s halfcourt offense will stall out against Miami’s defense, or how the Heat’s no-screen action will negate the value of the Nets' switch-all defense.
But really, this is a simple cap.
I make the spread for tonight's game Heat -15.
The Nets want to lose, and the Heat want to win.
It is very rarely as simple as that in the NBA, but this appears to be a spot where it might be.
Over 226.5 (Lean)
I don’t have a play on the total.
I make this line right around the number, with a very small (0.8) lean to the Over.
The Heat's transition offense is very bad for as much as they run, but the Nets’ transition defense is worse.
We should be in for a fast and sloppy game in Miami tonight.
Pick: Heat -13 (-110)
Spread
My Nets vs. Heat betting prediction is on Miami to cover the spread (-13).
Moneyline
No play on the moneyline in tonight's game.
Over/Under
I'm also steering clear of the total in this spot.
