The NBA regular season is back in action with a loaded 9-game slate for this Thursday. So, I've locked in a total of seven picks spanning four of today's contests, including bets for Pistons vs. Spurs, Nets vs. Heat, Warriors vs Rockets, and more.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, picks and expert bets for Thursday, March 5.
NBA Picks, Predictions for Thursday, March 5
  |   |   |   |
Pistons vs. Spurs
Pistons +3.5
On the surface, this line makes sense, sure.
The Spurs are the No. 2 team in the West, the Pistons No. 1 in the East, and San Antonio is at home.
There’s a perceived lack of gravitas with the Pistons as a feel-good story. Meanwhile, people seem to think the Spurs are more “serious” because of their Western Conference placement.
Except, even the market thinks this line is wrong.
Inpredictable.com’s market ratings with a league-average-for-this-season homecourt advantage applied makes this game a pick‘em, which is 3.5 points off the actual market.
So, the market has thought Detroit was better, or San Antonio worse, until we got to this game.
There’s nothing on the injury report to move it either.
The last time these two teams played was about 10 days ago, when the Spurs won by 11 in Detroit. The Pistons were -1.5 in that game, without a suspended Isaiah Stewart.
So, this is a 5-point swing on homecourt, but with Stewart back.
I’m not saying this line is wildly off, but I can’t say it’s on point, either.
Lines just don’t typically move off the regular-season result of one game.
Some trends:
- Since 2021, when JB Bickerstaff is off a loss, facing a team that he lost the previous matchup to, he is 25-18 ATS (58%).
- Detroit is 5-1 ATS this season when facing a team they previously lost to.
- The Spurs just crushed the Sixers. Teams are 24-36 ATS this season after playing Philly (40%).
- Detroit is 18-13 ATS this season (58%) when facing an above .500 ATS team (Spurs are 57% on the season).
- San Antonio is 3-2 ATS this season against teams it beat outright as a road 'dog in the last matchup, now as a home favorite — but they are -1.3 in spread differential in those games.
- The kicker: Detroit is 7-0, SU and ATS, as a road 'dog this season, covering by 11.5 points per game.
I actually make the Pistons slight favorites in this game, based on power rating and the Pistons’ excellent road rating.
The big concern in this game would be Detroit’s offense against the Spurs’ defense — but funny enough, Detroit has been better offensively against top-10 defenses this season, with the 5th-best offense compared to San Antonio’s 8th-best.
Detroit also has the best defense against those teams with the best defense, while San Antonio is 3rd.
It’s close; these are both elite teams, but I just don’t think San Antonio can be more than a 1-point favorite in this spot.
Under 228.5
I love the Under here as well, as I project this down at 220.
The first matchup between these teams went Under by 15.5 points.
Pistons' games are 6-3 to the Under when they’re on the road after losing to a team in their last matchup.
In particular, the Pistons are the No. 1 team in forcing opponent turnovers this season, and while San Antonio is good at avoiding them, there are sure to be some.
That said, the Spurs have the 5th-best transition defense this season.
The Pistons will disrupt San Antonio, and the Spurs will get back and force misses. We saw that several times in the first matchup.
Pick: Pistons +3.5 (-115), Under 228.5 (-110)
| | | |
Warriors vs. Rockets
Rockets -9.5
I was all ready to hold my nose and bet the Warriors here.
Based on power rating, even with Steph Curry out, this is a hilarious number.
A fundamentally sound and well-coached team as 9.5 point 'dogs to a Houston team that routinely wets the bed? Sign me up.
However…
- The Warriors are an absolutely God-awful, atrocious, no-good, stinky 4-11 ATS this season without Stephen Curry as underdogs, with an average spread of 6.6 and an average ATS margin of -4.7. They literally lose by 11.3 points per game without Curry, often to much worse teams than Houston.
But, I could move past that, and I could somehow stand to get there by missing Kristaps Porzingis (unknown medical illness) and Moses Moody (wrist), again, based on the number, until I found this:
- The Warriors run a motion-heavy, assist-heavy offense. They want to move the ball to create open threes. The Rockets feast on high-assist-rate teams and are an astonishing 14-4 against teams who are top-10 in 3-point rate.
- Houston is 7-3 against teams above league-average in both three-point attempts per game and three-point percentage per game.
This matchup is quite simply a disaster for the Warriors.
The Warriors have a -3.1 spread differential against teams that are top-10 in both offense and defense per CleaningTheGlass.com.
Finally, even after losing Steven Adams for the season, the Rockets are still No. 1 in offensive rebound rate. The Warriors are 24th in defensive rebound rate.
This projects as a game where the Warriors are pretty helpless against Houston.
Rockets Team Total Over 112.5
I’d lean towards the Over, but a lot of the game script goes against that.
Offensive rebounds to extend possessions and burn clock, turnovers forced by the Rockets which result in low-efficiency chances against a stingy defense, ragged shooting with injuries on both sides.
I will take the Rockets team total Over though, based on a script that says Houston should beat them up on the interior while generating faster pace with their turnovers.
Pick: Rockets -9.5 (-110), Rockets Team Total Over 112.5 (-105)
| | | |
Jazz vs. Wizards
Wizards -2.5
Welcome to the tank-off — except the Wizards actually want to win this one.
Both teams are on a 3rd game in four nights, with Utah on a back-to-back.
The Jazz already have sat out Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Jusuf Nurkic due to necessary surgeries and ailments.
Now, they are likely to play even fewer guys in this rest spot.
The Jazz are two games “back” (they have more) in the win column from the Wizards. This is a big game for Utah's tanking hopes.
The jump from 5th to 4th is a 6% difference to stay in the top-four in the lottery and +2.5 percentage points for the No. 1 pick.
The Wizards, meanwhile, have activated Trae Young.
Young is not going to play many games for the Wizards, but this is a “Hey, you might want to buy season tickets next year, this team might not suck” game for the franchise and their new star point guard acquisition.
It’s a make-good for Young, who is looking for a multi-year, big-money deal this summer.
Even without Kyshawn George, who will miss time with an elbow sprain, the Wizards will probably be the more talented team in this game, despite Utah being feisty.
I make the spread for this game Wizards -3.5.
The simple fact that this is a game where Washington is signaling it wants to win, and Utah has a clear incentive to lose, gives the Wizards value.
Over 243
I like the Over, with the Wizards likely putting up a huge number with an honest-to-God NBA point guard on the floor and how much shooting they have, combined with Utah’s likelihood to be turnover-prone with unconventional lineups and inexperienced players in the lineup.
Some might tell you there’s something wrong with you if you bet on this game — and for sure, any tank-off has risk.
But, value is value, and the value is on the Wizards tonight.
Pick: Wizards -2.5 (-105), Over 243 (-110)
| | | |
Nets vs. Heat
Heat -12.5
It’s hard to beat a team twice in a week — unless they want you to.
The Heat and Nets play for the second time in Miami in what I call a Duplex Set, where teams face off twice in the same building in a short amount of time.
These games can be tricky, with wonky results.
However, I looked at when teams play in the back half of the season when one team has a win percentage of better than 50 percent (above .500) and the opponent’s win percentage is below 30 percent (tanking teams).
I would have expected the market to get too far ahead of the game and the value to be on the underdog.
Nope. Teams are 68-53-2 (56.2%) ATS in that spot. Home teams are 39-23-1 (63%) ATS.
Miami’s starting to play better basketball now that they are healthier. The Nets are still the Nets.
I could give you basketball analysis on how Brooklyn’s halfcourt offense will stall out vs. Miami’s defense, or how the Heat’s no-screen action will negate the value of Brooklyn’s switch-all defense.
But really, this is a simple cap. I make this spread Heat -15. The the Nets want to lose and the Heat want to win.
It is very rarely that simple in the NBA, but this appears to be a spot where it might be.
Over 226 (Lean)
I don’t have a play on the total. I make this right around the number, with a very small (0.8) lean to the Over.
The Heat transition offense is very bad for as much as they run, but the Nets’ transition defense is worse.
Fast and sloppy is the model for what this game looks like.
Pick: Heat -12.5 (-115)
| | | |
