The Golden State Warriors (31-30) and Houston Rockets (38-22) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. The game will broadcast live on Amazon Prime Video.
The Rockets are 8.5-point favorites over the Warriors on the spread (Rockets -8.5), with the over/under set at 214.5 total points. Houston is a -360 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Golden State is +280 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Warriors vs. Rockets predictions and NBA picks for Thursday, March 5.
Warriors vs Rockets Prediction, Picks
- Warriors vs Rockets pick: Rockets -8.5 (-110)
My Rockets vs. Warriors best bet is on Houston to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Warriors vs Rockets Odds
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 214.5 -110o / -110u | +280 |
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 214.5 -110o / -110u | -360 |
Warriors vs Rockets NBA Preview
I was all ready to hold my nose and bet the Warriors in this game.
Based on power rating, even with Steph Curry out, this is a hilarious number.
A fundamentally sound and well-coached team as 8.5 point underdogs against a Rockets team that routinely wets the bed? Sign me up.
However, the Warriors are an absolutely God-awful, atrocious, no-good, stinky 4-11 ATS as underdogs without Steph this season, with an average spread of 6.6 and an average ATS margin of -4.7.
The Warriors literally lose by 11.3 points per game without Curry, often to much worse teams than Houston.
But, I could move past that — and I could somehow stand to get to this number with Kristaps Porzingis (unknown medical illness) and Moses Moody (wrist) sidelined, again, until I found this:
The Warriors run a motion-heavy, assist-heavy offense. They want to move the ball to create open three-point attempts.
The Rockets feast on high-assist-rate teams and are an astonishing 14-4 against teams who are top-10 in 3-point rate.
Houston is 7-3 against teams above league-average in both three-point attempts per game and three-point percentage.
Warriors vs Rockets Predictions, Betting Analysis
Rockets -8.5
This matchup is quite simply a disaster for the Warriors.
The Warriors have a -3.1 spread differential against teams that are top-10 in both offense and defense per CleaningTheGlass.com.
Even after losing Steven Adams for the season, the Rockets are still rank 1st in offensive rebound rate. Meanwhile, the Warriors are 24th in defensive rebound rate.
This projects as a game where the Warriors are pretty helpless against Houston.
Rockets Team Total Over 112.5
I’d lean toward the Over, but a lot of the game script goes against that.
Offensive rebounds to extend possessions and burn clock, turnovers forced by the Rockets, which result in low-efficiency chances against a stingy defense, ragged shooting with injuries on both sides; everything seemingly points toward the Under.
However, I will take the Rockets team total Over based on a script that says Houston should beat them up on the interior while generating faster pace via turnovers.
Warriors vs Rockets Best Bets
- Rockets -8.5 (-110)
- Rockets Team Total Over 112.5 (-105)
Spread
My Warriors vs. Rockets betting prediction is on Houston to cover the spread (-8.5).
Moneyline
No play on the moneyline in tonight's contest.
Over/Under
I'm not betting either side of the game total. However, I will be backing the Rockets to go over their team total.
