The NBA regular season is back in action with a jam packed 15-game slate this Friday, and I've locked in a total of five picks spanning four of tonight's contests — including bets for Cavaliers vs. Hawks, Mavericks vs. Spurs and more.
Let's get to my NBA best bets and expert picks and predictions for Friday, April 10.
NBA Best Bets for Friday, April 10
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Cavaliers vs. Hawks Spread Prediction
Hawks -6.5
The Cavaliers won the first of two games against the Hawks and are calling it. They have little motivation to win here, as evidenced by their injury report resting Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen, Jaylon Tyson, and Sam Merrill (Harden will play, which is hilarious).
Cleveland actually probably wants to lose to make sure they wind up the 4-seed, avoiding the Celtics and getting the Pistons in the second round. The Hawks, meanwhile, can clinch a playoff spot with a win and are at real risk of falling to the play-in with a loss.
With all the Cleveland injuries, I make this spread Hawks -7.9. It’s difficult to beat a team twice in a row, especially on the road in a game you don’t need that they need for their lungs
I expect the Hawks to roll here and punch their playoff ticket, which seemed very unlikely just two months ago.
Pick: Hawks -6.5
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Heat vs. Wizards Over/Under Pick
Under 246.5
Miami is basically locked into the 10-seed, again — and there’s very little reason for them to push (wins by Charlotte and Sixers in either of their final two games lock Miami into 10th).
Miami plays at the fastest pace in the league by a pretty good margin. The Wizards have the fifth-highest pace. So, I get why this number looks this way.
But, the Heat are likely to peel back on starter minutes on a back-to-back with nothing to play for, and their offense isn’t efficient; it’s just fast (12th in offensive rating).
Miami's defense has fallen off a cliff, but you know a good solve for that? The Washington Wizards, who have gone under in four of their last seven games.
The Wizards need to lose this game for tanking purposes, and Miami is resting. This will be a fast-paced, ugly game. I project it at 239, even before the resting and missing talent.
Pick: Under 246.5
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Mavericks vs. Spurs Spread & Total Bets
Mavericks +17.5
The Mavs are 11-7 ATS when they are double-digit 'dogs this season. They’ve begun shutting down guys for the season, but Cooper Flagg is probable. Meanwhile, Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle are questionable; everyone else is a go for the Spurs.
Wembanyama needs just one more game to be eligible for postseason awards, and he’s likely to play on Sunday (more on that in a minute). If he does play, it’s likely he just plays 20 minutes to fulfill the requirement and then sits.
The Spurs are locked into the 2-seed; they can’t go up or down. There’s no reason for them to push in this game.
But, if they win on Sunday, they will likely have an opportunity to knock Denver into the 4-seed and put OKC and the Nuggets on the other side of the bracket.
So it makes a lot more sense for the Spurs to be cautious with this game and then be more aggressive on Sunday. I won’t be surprised if starters see shortened minutes vs. the Mavericks tonight.
Dallas is still a pretty talented team, even with their veterans out, and have developed some of the talent this year. Marvin Bagley will compete on the interior, and they have guards with some juice along with Flagg, even if they don’t have a lot of shooting.
I’ll take the Mavs to cover in a game where they are the biggest underdogs they've been all season.
Under 235.5
The Mavs’ defensive principles pretty much stay consistent. They are a respectable 18th in defensive efficiency, despite their injuries and tanking. Even without their starters, they have guys who will get after it.
The Spurs’ offense can be a bit of a grind, and with San Antonio likely to pull back on minutes, their offense should dip. Most of their bench players are more multi-tool versatile components and less offensive fireplugs. Dylan Harper may go off, but I’d imagine a slower, grind-it-out-game from them.
There’s also the alternative here, where Wembanyama and Castle play, and the Spurs blow out the Mavericks by holding down a pretty helpless Dallas offense.
Pick: Mavericks +17.5, Under 235.5
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Timberwolves vs. Rockets Spread Pick
Rockets -10.5
Houston still has designs on the 3-seed. If they win out and Denver loses one game (the Spurs game is more likely), and the Lakers lose one, the Rockets can sneak into the 3-seed, get the banged-up Wolves, and avoid the Nuggets and Lakers altogether — and they would also get home court in the first round.
So, Houston is motivated.
The Wolves are resting Ayo Dosunmu, Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle, and Bones Hyland, along with Anthony Edwards being out. Minnesota can’t move up or down; they’re locked into the 6th-seed.
Houston has been playing much better as of late, and need to win this one. Even with the injuries, I actually still only make this Rockets -7.5, but I’m going to trust Houston here to handle itself and not leave any doubt in a game they’re motivated to win.
Teams with a lot on the line vs. teams with nothing on the line are typically dangerous spots, but that’s against normal teams. This is a Houston team with a lot on the line vs. a Minnesota team that genuinely just wants to get past Sunday healthy.
Even with Naz Reid and Jaden McDaniels playing, I’m not expecting them to go more than 30 minutes. I’ll trust Houston.
Pick: Rockets -10.5
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