NBA Best Bets | Picks Against Spread, Total Prediction, Player Props, Odds (Friday, April 5)

The NBA regular season continues with a jam packed 12-game slate this Friday, headlined by a solid nationally televised doubleheader on NBA TV as Kings vs. Celtics takes center stage for a non-conference battle at 7:30 p.m. ET, and then Timberwolves vs. Suns tips off the late window with a Western Conference clash at 10 p.m. ET.

As we preview Friday's games, our basketball betting experts have locked in six NBA best bets for today's slate — featuring two picks against the spread, three player props, and one total prediction.

Read along for our NBA best bets for Friday, April 5.

NBA Best Bets for Friday, April 5

By Joe Dellera

The Orlando Magic are heavy favorites in tonight’s game against the Charlotte Hornets and should take care of business.

One player that I think has a line that’s a touch high is Franz Wagner. Wagner has scored 20+ in consecutive games and has seen his line increase to 18.5 points.

This is a tougher matchup due to pace. Over the last 10 games, the Hornets have played at the slowest pace in the league (93.80) while the Magic have played at the 20th-ranked Pace (96.10).

While the Hornets’ defense has been abysmal during these 10 games, the pace should make it a slog and that’s indicative of the 205.5 total.

When Franz has played alongside Paolo this season he has averaged 19.6 points per game. However, this has dipped to 16.2 over his last 20 games.

The team has had strong contributions across the board from Paolo, Suggs, Cole Anthony, and Wendell Carter Jr. — who all are averaging double digit points. Franz has not needed to take on a significant scoring load.

In this matchup which should be slow paced and possibly a blowout, I expect Franz to fall short 18.5 points.

Pick: Franz Wagner Under 18.5 Points (-120)

By Jim Turvey

This is a bit of a zag spot, but I'm eyeing Chet Holmgren's unders against the Indiana Pacers on Friday.

Yes, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is out and Jalen Williams is doubtful — and yes, the Pacers live up to their name as a pace-up team. However, there's reason to look to the under.

Despite their fast pace, Indiana allows the fewest threes made per game of any team in the NBA, and the fourth-fewest assists per game.

Holmgren himself has been struggling in the past month, having hit a bit of a rookie wall, with his per game totals dropping from: 17.2 points and 2.7 assists per game on 54.4/39.8/78.4 shooting splits to 14.6 and 1.8 on 47.6/27.5/84.5 since the calendar flipped to March.

Also, at this point of his career, he is not the one to absorb usage when Shai and Jay Dub are out. That responsibility falls more to Lu Dort and Aaron Wiggins, who have seen their numbers pop the last few games, and are the ones to target if you're looking for OKC overs.

However, there's also the fact that this game could get fully out of hand, as the Thunder just lost by 35 to the Celtics without their two main guys in their last game.

The Pacers are no Celtics, but they are a team that could absolutely run a very short-handed Thunder team off the court.

I would play this to under 16.5 points and under 19.5 points plus assists.

Pick: Chet Holmgren Under 21.5 PTS + AST (-120)

By Matt Moore

This line opened -8.5, presumably on the questionable status of Derrick White and Jaylen Brown.

But the Kings are on a back-to-back here after losing a tough one to the Knicks Thursday night, and Sacramento is just 4-9 on the second night of a back-to-back this season.

Meanwhile, the Celtics are 9-6 ATS (60%) when they have a rest advantage at home, including 6-3 ATS when the opponent is on a back-to-back.

I project this at Celtics -14 fully healthy and even with the possible injury absences, I see a spot for Boston to use this as a tuneup for the playoffs after some lackluster performances.

Pick: Celtics -9.5 (-110)

By Jim Turvey

This is a spot where one team would appear to have the motivation edge, but I'll be on the other side.

The Pelicans were flying high right after the All-Star Break, but have hit a bit of a slump of late, having lost three straight and having failed to cover six of their last eight.

But this is even more so a bet on the Spurs as opposed to fading the Pels.

Despite having theoretically not much to play for after the All-Star Break, the Spurs have been an absolute wagon since the festivities. They are 15-6 against the spread in that time, and have covered their last five. Victor Wembanyama has them competing night-in and night-out, and I'm already excited for their futures next season.

But for this season, they've made bettors plenty of money regardless, and even though Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan are out, with Keldon Johnson questionable for San Antonio, Brandon Ingram and Jose Alvarado are out for New Orleans, with Zion Williamson still questionable.

The Zion official news will likely move this line, but I'm almost certainly going to like the final number regardless, so bettors can wait on this bet just to make sure Wemby isn't somehow ruled out last second or something silly like that.

Pick: Spurs +11.5 (-110)

By Joe Dellera

The Mavericks play the Warriors again and Luka Doncic is primed for another big night.

Luka has been incredible since the All-Star Break and is averaging 33 points, 10.4 assists, and 10.1 rebounds in 20 games. Just the other day he secured a 30 points, 12 rebounds, and 11 assists to complete a monster triple double when these two teams met.

The stat I'm targeting tonight in the rematch is Luka's rebounds. In these 20 Post-ASB games, he has exceeded 9.5 boards in 14 of 20 games. He's doing this on 14.1 rebound chances per game but in this game against the Warriors he had 16 rebound chances.

The conversion rate is high, but considering the Warriors' personnel, this is not unreasonable.

When these teams played on March 13, Luka only had three rebounds on just five chances but the Warriors played an entirely different rotation without Curry and Draymond, but with Chris Paul, Kuminga, Wiggins, and Trayce Jackson-Davis.

Tonight, Kuminga's status should be considered questionable after missing his fifth-consecutive game on Thursday and Andrew Wiggins (ankle) exited Thursday's game with an ankle injury as well.

The Warriors have been the second-best rebounding team since the break, but Luka gets all of those easy rebounds to help kickstart the offense in transition.

Jackson-Davis has been an excellent offensive rebounder for the Warriors, but Kuminga and Wiggins are two of the team's best as well while Kevon Looney has fallen almost completely out of the rotation.

On zero days of rest, Luka has exceeded this mark in five of eight games this season including three straight following the ASB.

Given his recent form and the familiar matchup, I expect Luka to exceed 9.5 rebounds, and don't mind a sprinkle on triple double (+260 FD) in an incredibly important game for both teams as they jockey for playoff positioning.

Pick: Luka Doncic Over 9.5 Rebounds (-113)

By Vince Akins

Both of these teams played really strong games last time out. But here neither plays particularly fast and in a game expected to be close, look for a lower scoring game.

These teams are both in the bottom five in the field in field goal attempts per game. Phoenix accounts for that with the fourth-highest shooting percentage in the league. Minnesota meanwhile is league-best in field goal percentage allowed.

Both of these teams enter off huge wins by more than 20 points. Matchups of teams that both won by 18+ points last game are 111-155 OU.

Minnesota in particular won by 48 points over the Raptors Wednesday. Teams who had at margin in their last game at least 34 points better than any of their previous three games are 89-126 OU.

All aspects were clicking for Minnesota in that 133-85 win. The Timberwolves had 37 assists in that game.

In situations where the Timberwolves had more than 35 assists in their previous outing, they are 6-0 to the under since March 7, 2022.

Pick: Under 216.5 (-108)

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