The NBA Playoffs will resume with a trio of Game 2s tonight — Monday, April 20. Our staff of betting experts dug into the latest NBA odds and identified best bets for all three of today's matchups, including picks for Hawks vs. Knicks, Timberwolves vs. Nuggets and more.
Continue below for our NBA picks and predictions for Monday's playoff games.
NBA Best Bets, Picks, Predictions for Monday, April 20
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Raptors vs. Cavaliers
This is a direct read on the fact that I don’t think Jakob Poeltl is going to be able to stay on the court in this series. He didn’t look great in the opener, and the Raptors' defensive scheme under the current staff doesn't have a great answer at center unless they go to someone who can switch and move.
Collin Murray-Boyles is their best shot at a big man who can play both ways. He played 20 minutes last game and turned in a 14/4/4 line—that’s 22 PRA, well clear of this number.
The 15.5 line is basically his season average, but it’s depressed by low-minute games. If you look at the games where he plays at least 16 minutes, he averages a 10/6/2 line (18 PRA). As long as he hits that 16-minute floor, he’s in the green.
The secret sauce here is the rebounding energy. CMB led Toronto with 16 rebounding chances in Game 1. He only hauled in four of them, which I don't love, but I do love the energy it takes to get to those spots. I’m trusting him to convert a few more of those in Game 2.
Because of that volume, I’m also adding the 7+ Rebounds (+275) escalator. He’s hit that in 14 of the 32 games where he’s seen 20+ minutes this season — and if you dare to dream, a CMB Double-Double is +1500 at Hard Rock, which may be in play if his minutes tick up at all.
Pick: Collin Murray-Boyles Over 15.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-110)
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Hawks vs. Knicks
By Jim Turvey
I’m sticking with a strategy that is going to be a blind play for me all series. The data here is just too loud to ignore.
During the regular season, the Knicks posted a +11.7 net rating in the fourth quarter, which was the best in the entire league by a wide margin. The Hawks weren't terrible, but they were middle-of-the-pack at +2.3.
To me, the fourth quarter is where playoff experience and homecourt advantage are most likely to manifest, and we saw that play out in Game 1.
Even with the variance we’ve discussed, the Knicks won that fourth quarter by two points, and that was while protecting a nine-point lead entering the frame.
In Game 2, I expect things to be a bit tighter coming down the stretch, which actually helps us. The market has already moved this number a full point toward the Hawks, so grabbing the -1.5 now is the best value you're going to get.
You can play this pre-game like I am, or even look to add more live if the script allows. If you’re feeling spicy, you could even build a reverse-correlated SGP with the Hawks on the full-game spread.
But in general, I’m trusting the Knicks to close. This team is never going to impress you with style—they’re just going to win. Give me the Knicks to own the final twelve minutes.
Pick: Knicks Fourth Quarter Spread -1.5 (-108)
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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets
If you watched Game 1, it’s clear that David Adelman trusts Bruce Brown implicitly. He finished with five steals, eight points, seven rebounds, and three assists. That is the line of a guy who is firmly entrenched in the rotation as the real sixth man.
I know Tim Hardaway Jr. just got nominated for Sixth Man of the Year, but Hardaway is a shooter. If the shots aren't falling, does he stay on the court in a high-stakes playoff game? I’m not so sure.
Bruce Brown, however, is playing either way because of his energy and positional rebounding. In Game 1, he was third on the Nuggets with 11 potential rebounds, and he converted seven of them.
I looked at the PRA, but Bruce isn't really wired as a high-volume scorer, and he only had four potential assists. I’d rather just bet on his hustle.
Throughout his career, in the 36 games where he’s played at least 16 minutes, he averages 4.6 rebounds per game and hits at least four rebounds 67% of the time. He understands the team's need for rebounding, especially in those second-unit minutes.
I’m also playing the escalator: 5+ rebounds at +275. If I’m already getting a win at four, and I can more than double my price just for one more board, I have to take a nibble.
Pick: Bruce Brown Over 3.5 Rebounds (+135)
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