The NBA playoffs resume with a trio of Game 6s today, Thursday, April 30 — and our NBA betting expert Brandon Anderson has locked in picks for all three of today's matchups: Celtics vs. 76ers, Knicks vs. Hawks, and Nuggets vs. Timberwolves.
Continue below for our NBA best bets, spread picks, and player props for tonight's playoff games.
NBA Best Bets, Spread Picks, Player Props: Thursday, April 30
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Knicks vs. Hawks Team Total, Player Prop
Hawks Team Total Under 106.5
This is effectively a bet on the Knicks' defense because even if New York’s offense goes cold, I don’t think Atlanta has the firepower to take advantage.
Look at the Hawks’ scoring totals this series: 102, 106, 108, 98, and 97. They are averaging just 102.2 points per game, and the only time they cleared this number was on a CJ McCollum game-winner in Game 3. Otherwise, they are 5-for-5 on this under.
The Knicks’ starters have won their minutes in every single game, and with CJ erased from the series, Atlanta has nothing left.
This play because gives us an out—the Hawks could theoretically win an ugly, low-scoring game and we still cash. I’m also looking at the "it’s so over" escalators, specifically the first half team total under 50 at +255.
The Hawks have scored 48 and 44 in the first half of the last two games and clearly don't want to be there anymore. Take the under and watch the Hawks head for the off-season.
CJ McCollum Under 19.5 Points
The Hawks' offense has gone completely MIA lately, and CJ McCollum is one of the primary reasons for that.
If you zoom in on Game 3, he had 16 points at the half before the Knicks made a key adjustment: they stopped letting Jalen Brunson guard him.
Since that switch, he has scored a grand total of 25 points in two and a half games. That is a miserable 10 points per game on 38% shooting.
Last game, McCollum was a total non-factor with 6 points on 3-of-10 shooting and four turnovers. So much for the New York villain arc; he’s less Joker or Bane and more like the Penguin—just a guy with a long nose who isn't actually a threat.
He's scored 6 and 17 in his last two games. I’m taking the mineshaft all the way down to under 15.5 (+262) and under 12.5 (+580).
Picks: Hawks Team Total Under 106.5, CJ McCollum Under 19.5 Points
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Celtics vs. 76ers Spread Pick, Player Prop
Celtics -5.5
This is only a one-star play for me because it honestly doesn't match what my eyeballs are seeing right now, but we’re sticking to the trend: Celtics -5.5.
Since 2020, Boston is 17-5 against the spread when they are favored after losing a game as a favorite. That is a massive 77% hit rate, covering by nearly five points a game. And let's be real—three of those five losses were pure Heat voodoo, which isn't a factor here.
This is the Sixers, and Joel Embiid is a whopping 4-13 against the mighty Celtics in the playoffs.
Now, I don’t necessarily trust this Boston team right now. Derrick White is in a slump, Jaylen Brown is already fading, and I’ve got some questions about Joe Mazzulla.
I’m already over my skis on series bets—Celtics -1.5 and Celtics in six—so I basically need Boston to show up and win a game where they are definitely the better team.
It feels like I’m asking for trouble, but the history says they bounce back here. Screw it, Celtics -5.5.
Joel Embiid Under 8.5 Rebounds
Embiid was great scoring-wise in Game 5, but the four rebounds he recorded tells the real story. The eye test says he looks exhausted. He missed a ton of time, his conditioning isn't there, and he just isn't crashing the boards very hard.
In 39 minutes last game, he had exactly eight rebound chances. Compare that to Maxey, PG, and Edgecombe, who all had 15 or 16 chances. Embiid only grabbed half of the eight opportunities he actually had.
His track record against Boston this season is 6, 6, 10, and 4 rebounds, averaging just 6.5 per game. Over the last two seasons, he’s at 6.3 against them.
This 8.5 line is just too high, and I’m also laddering this down—under 6.5 is roughly 3-to-1 and has hit in three of the four Boston games this year. If you want to go deeper, under 5.5 is +550.
Picks: Celtics -5.5, Joel Embiid Under 8.5 Rebounds
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Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Player Props
Nikola Jokic Over 43.5 Points & Rebounds
I’m treating this like a Game 7. That means I’m expecting Nikola Jokic to play all the minutes he possibly can to drag Denver to the finish line.
When Jokic plays over 40 minutes in the playoffs, his production shifts massively. In the 29 career playoff games where he’s hit that 40-minute mark, he averages 31 points and 15 rebounds. That’s a 37% jump in scoring compared to his other playoff games.
While everyone is talking about his 16 assists last game, that was an absurd outlier on just 17 potentials. In these heavy-minute spots, his assists actually dip while he takes over the scoring and the glass.
The math is simple: in those 40-plus minute games, he averages about 46 points and rebounds combined, clearing this 43.5 line in 69% of those opportunities.
He has recorded 17-plus rebounds in at least one game in 11 straight playoff series, and he hasn't hit that milestone yet in this one.
Rudy Gobert Under 9.5 Points
This is a bet against Minnesota’s ability to create looks for Rudy Gobert.
Gobert doesn't create for himself; he relies on gravity and creation from teammates, and right now, the Wolves have neither.
In Game 5, the team leader in potential assists was Kyle Anderson with a whopping six. When your playmaking is that stagnant, Gobert is the one who suffers.
Look at his last four games: 2, 10, 4, and 3 points. The only reason he even sniffed the over in that 10-point game was because he hit five free throws, but he only took two actual shots.
Gobert is strictly a finisher at the rim or a put-back guy, and if I’m backing Jokic to have a big game, I’m also expecting Jokic to limit those interior opportunities.
Under 9.5 is the baseline at plus-money, but I love the under 6.5 at +260—you basically just need to avoid a fourth dunk. He’s hit the under 5.5 in three of the last four games.
Picks: Nikola Jokic Over 43.5 Points & Rebounds, Rudy Gobert Under 9.5 Points
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