Friday NBA Betting, DFS Cheat Sheet for All 7 Games: Favorite Bets, Pro System Matches, More

In today's NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, as well as analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.

Here are the games on tonight's slate:

• Memphis Grizzlies at Orlando Magic (-9.5), 7 p.m. ET
• Denver Nuggets (-11) at New York Knicks, 7:30 p.m. ET
• Oklahoma City Thunder at Toronto Raptors (-2.5), 7:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV
• LA Clippers (-6.5) at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:30 p.m. ET
• San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets (-6), 8 p.m. ET on NBA TV
• Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks (-8.5), 8:30 p.m. ET
• Brooklyn Nets (-2.5) at Los Angeles Lakers, 10:30 p.m. ET

All data as of 4 p.m. ET on Friday. For live odds and betting percentages click here.

Friday NBA: Most Public Bets

• Nets -2.5 at Lakers: 81% of bets
• Clippers -6.5 at Cavs: 72% of bets
• Raptors -2.5 vs. Thunder: 68% of bets
• Nuggets -11 at Knicks: 66% of bets
• Under 227 in Clippers-Cavs: 64% of bets

Friday NBA: Injuries to Know

In our NBA Injury Report, we broke down the betting and DFS impact of tonight's key injury situations.

• Memphis Grizzlies: Mike Conley (soreness) is doubtful, Joakim Noah (knee) is questionable.
• Toronto Raptors: Kyle Lowry (ankle) is out.

Here's a snippet from that piece on the Raptors:

Fred VanVleet drew the start at point guard on Wednesday and recorded 36 DraftKings points. He started alongside Lowry in the previous game and provided 39.5 DraftKings points, and he has managed to produce a FantasyLabs +7.21 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.

Friday’s showdown against the Thunder is a repeat of Wednesday’s game, and Pascal Siakam led the way with 63.75 DraftKings points in the overtime win. He has benefited from a +2% usage rate increase in 14 games played without Lowry this season.

With Lowry out, Kawhi Leonard has led the team with a 31.9% usage rate and has exceeded his salary-based expectations in three straight games, including Wednesday’s difficult matchup against Paul George.

Leonard and Siakam profile more as tournament options while VanVleet makes for a strong cash-game play with a more favorable salary on both sites.

For all injury news and projected starting lineups, see our daily piece here.

Friday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays

Due to some injury situations, along with new roles for players after the trade deadline, there's a ton of value on today's NBA DFS slate.

Right now, there are four players with Projected Plus/Minus values above +7.5 (which is ridiculous value) on DraftKings:

• Delon Wright ($4,900) at Magic: +12.26 Projected Plus/Minus
• Justin Holiday ($3,800) at Magic: +9.33 Projected Plus/Minus
• Bruno Caboclo ($3,600) at Magic: +8.41 Projected Plus/Minus
• Tyler Dorsey ($3,000) at Magic: +7.77 Projected Plus/Minus

Yes, indeed: The top-four value plays today are all Grizzlies, which is … slightly terrifying.

Memphis is just so thin right now with Mike Conley out, which means guys like Wright and Holiday will likely have to go for more than 35 minutes. At these low salaries, it'll be almost impossible to fail.

We also have a new metric at FantasyLabs called "Leverage Score," which combines our ceiling projections and our ownership projections to identify potentially undervalued guaranteed prize pool plays.

One player with a high Leverage Score on FanDuel is Magic center Nikola Vucevic, who has a high ceiling projection and Projected Plus/Minus, but should have low ownership.

While everyone loads up on Grizzlies, it could be wise to take some Magic players, especially Vuc, who has averaged 1.52 fantasy points per minute over the past month. At home against this shorthanded Memphis squad, it's hard to draw up a better GPP spot than this.

Friday NBA: Best Player Props

There are currently seven player props in our tool with a Bet Quality of 10. This season, those bets have both hit at a 57% win rate.

One of those is Pascal Siakam to go over his 7.5 rebound prop. He's going up against the Thunder for the second time this week, and he pulled down an impressive 13 boards against them on Wednesday.

Siakam legit might have been the best player on the floor in that game.

He's had a breakout year and should be the favorite to win Most Improved Player. He's played heavier minutes of late with Kyle Lowry in and out of the lineup. And that additional playing time should help his overs.

In three games without Lowry since the trade deadline, Siakam has averaged 38.3 minutes and 7.0 rebounds per game.

Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.

Friday NBA Staff Favorite Bets

Malik Smith: Nets -2.5 at Lakers

It's been written about multiple times here, but the Lakers are a trash basketball team — as in 1-9 against the spread and straight up for the month bad.

It’s the much less exciting version of March Madness.

D’Angelo Russell, on the other hand, has been one of the most exciting players to watch, and the Nets have played well in their three road games in California.

Russell is heating up at the exact same time that he gets to go back to the Staples Center and play the team that traded him. Add in the fact that LeBron is hampered currently with a groin injury, and this game feels like a good one to jump on at -2.5.

Matt Moore: D'Angelo Russell over 23.5 points

Russell has a chance to eliminate the team that traded him away after making him the face of the franchise. A Nets win eliminates the Lakers from playoff contention.

Yeah, I’m gonna go ahead and take the over here.

I don’t go in on the narrative train often, but when I buy the ticket, I want to ride it through the high hills of Petty. Alex Caruso is Russell’s 1-on-1 matchup, and the Lakers are going to drop JaVale McGee in coverage. Russell might not go off for 40, but I like him to breeze through the over.

Moore: Nuggets -11 at Knicks

The Nuggets found a way to win the trap game against Washington coming off the big win over the Celtics on Monday to clinch a playoff berth. That shows their growth and how they’ve found their groove.

Meanwhile, the Knicks are 6-3 on the second night of a back-to-back this season ATS and 4-2 on the road. In related news, the Knicks are 3-6 ATS when facing an opponent on the second night of a back-to-back because they are a flaming bag of hazardous biowaste.

Moore: Thunder +125 at Raptors

I’m never going to get tired of wasting money on OKC this season.

The Thunder are facing the Raptors for the second time in four days, and that matchup is always hard to beat twice. I’m getting only +125 on the moneyline, but given that OKC stormed back from way down against the Raptors, it’s enough to get me on board.

Punish me more, Thunder. I deserve it for trusting you.

Moore: Heat +4.5 1H at Bucks

Miami has won and covered four of five while Milwaukee is .500 in its past eight games. No Mirotic, no Brogdon, no George Hill.

Giannis Antetokounmpo might play, but Miami’s been too good lately. And without Brogdon and Mirotic to act as counters, the limited zone Miami runs will be enough to mess with the Bucks.

Milwaukee was down big in the first half last time to this team, and I expect the same here.

Friday NBA Pro System of the Day

At Bet Labs, we have a Pro NBA System called "Pro Tickets vs. Money Overs." It identifies totals in which there's sharp money — measured as a higher percentage of over dollars than bets — on the over.

This system has hit at a 55.1% rate historically, good for a 7.3% Return on Investment (ROI). It has been our most profitable system this season, going 70-55-1 for a robust 8.9% ROI.

This system is especially intriguing because it's measured against the closing line. That means sharp money is on the over, it's moving up as a result and it's still hitting for a double-digit ROI. That's pretty darn impressive.

There's one match tonight:

• Over 230.5 in Nets-Lakers, 10:30 p.m. ET

Friday NBA: Most Important Betting Trend for Every Game

• Grizzlies at Magic: The Grizzlies are 13-21-1 ATS on the road.
• Nuggets at Knicks: The under is 9-1 in the Nuggets' past 10 games.
• Thunder at Raptors: The under is 12-3 when the Thunder are underdogs.
• Clippers at Cavs: The Clippers are 25-11 ATS as favorites.
• Spurs at Rockets: The over is 22-9 when the Spurs are underdogs.
• Heat at Bucks: The Heat are 23-11 ATS on the road and as underdogs.
• Nets at Lakers: The Lakers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games.

For many more trends on every game, download The Action Network app.