Wednesday NBA Betting, DFS Cheat Sheet for All 11 Games: Favorite Bets, Injuries to Know, More
Photo credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Andre Drummond
In today’s NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, as well as analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.
Here are the games on tonight’s slate:
- Brooklyn Nets (-8) at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 p.m. ET
- Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5) at Indiana Pacers, 7 p.m. ET
- Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics (-4), 7:30 p.m. ET
- Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors (-10), 7:30 p.m. ET
- Philadelphia 76ers (-9.5) at New York Knicks, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Houston Rockets (-4) at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Memphis Grizzlies at Chicago Bulls (-1.5), 8 p.m. ET
- Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks (-3), 8:30 p.m. ET
- Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets (-7.5), 9 p.m. ET
- Golden State Warriors (-3) at Portland Trail Blazers, 10:30 p.m. ET
- Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Clippers (-8.5), 10:30 p.m. ET
All data as of 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday. For live odds and betting percentages click here.
Pro Betting System of the Day | Betting Trends
Wednesday NBA: Most Public Bets
- Over 210.5 in Pistons-Celtics: 81% of bets
- Sixers -9.5 at Knicks: 80% of bets
- Rockets -4 at Wolves: 79% of bets
- Bucks -4.5 at Pacers: 77% of bets
- Nets -8 at Cavaliers: 77% of bets
Wednesday NBA: Injuries to Know
In today’s NBA Injury Report, we broke down the betting and DFS impact of the slate’s key injury situations:
- Celtics: Kyrie Irving (knee) is out. Terry Rozier (illness) is doubtful.
- Grizzlies: Mike Conley (illness) will play. Kyle Anderson (shoulder) is out.
- Timberwolves: Andrew Wiggins (illness) is questionable. Tyus Jones (ankle) is doubtful. Derrick Rose (ankle) is probable. Robert Covington (knee) is out.
- Warriors: DeMarcus Cousins (rest) and Shaun Livingston (rest) are out.
Here’s a snippet from that piece on the Celtics:
Rozier has started every game that Irving has missed this season, and this would be the first game that both have missed if Rozier is unable to suit up.
Jaylen Brown or Gordon Hawyard seem like the most logical candidates to move into the starting lineup, with Marcus Smart shifting over to the PG position. Bradley Wanamaker should also be more involved in the rotation, and he’s averaged a respectable 0.84 DraftKings points per minute this season.
The Celtics haven’t played many minutes with both of their top PG options off the court, but Jayson Tatum has thrived in that situation. He’s seen a usage bump of +7.4% with both Irving and Rozier off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.30 DraftKings points per minute.
Brown, Hayward and Al Horford have also seen large boosts in usage rate and fantasy production in that situation, making the Celtics an appealing team to target on today’s slate.
Wednesday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays
With rotations still in flux due to the trade deadline, there’s a ton of value on today’s NBA DFS slate. Right now, there are four players with Projected Plus/Minus values above +8.0 on DraftKings:
- Jonas Valanciunas ($4,200) at Bulls: +10.16 Projected Plus/Minus
- Deandre Ayton ($6,700) at Clippers: +8.99 Projected Plus/Minus
- Kevon Looney ($3,700) at Blazers: +8.27 Projected Plus/Minus
- Dwight Powell ($4,400) vs. Heat: +8.17 Projected Plus/Minus
Valanciunas is the slate’s best value currently, mostly because he’s been priced way down to $4,200 following a long injury absence. Last night was his first game since the beginning of December, and he posted a robust 23-10 line in 21 minutes. Against a poor Bulls team, he’s a near lock to exceed value again.
We also have a new metric this year at FantasyLabs called “Leverage Score,” which combines our ceiling projections and our ownership projections to identify potential undervalued GPP plays.
One player with a high Leverage Score tonight on FanDuel is Nuggets center Nikola Jokic, who has a high ceiling projection and Projected Plus/Minus but should have low ownership.
Jokic has been a raw stats monster of late, and he’s been using a ton of possessions, especially with Gary Harris out. He’s gone for at least 59 FanDuel points — huge games — in six of his last 10 games, and he should have another large role tonight. Plus he has a beautiful matchup against the Kings, who play super fast and struggle on the glass.
Wednesday NBA: Best Player Props
There are currently a whopping 11 player props in our tool with a Bet Quality of 10. This season, those bets have hit at a 57% rate.
One is Andre Drummond to go over his 1.5-block prop. Over his last five games, he’s averaging 3.0 blocks per game — obviously way over this number, which he’s exceeding in four of those five games.
Further, he’s facing a tired Boston team on a back-to-back that should be down its top-two point guards in Kyrie Irving (out) and Terry Rozier (doubtful). Without Irving this season, the Celtics offense has dipped by a ridiculous 8.9 points per 100 possessions.
Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.
Wednesday NBA: Our Experts’ Favorite Bets
Travis Reed: Blazers +3 vs. Warriors
In a primetime game on national television, bettors are flocking toward the Warriors. As of writing, 65% of bets and nearly 80% of money on the spread has come in on Golden State, but I like the other side.
The Blazers are playing their third game in four days but did have the night off yesterday. They also have failed to cover in each of those previous two games. Teams in this situation have covered 54.7% of the time and haven’t had a losing season since 2009-10.
I’ll take the home team coming off a day off against a Warriors team playing on a back-to-back.
Evan Abrams: Blazers +1.5 First Half and +3 Full Game vs. Warriors
It’s always fun betting against the Warriors … just thrilling.
But with Golden State on a back-to-back, heading from Oracle to the Moda Center in Portland, it’s an unfortunate auto-bet.
The Blazers are the third-most profitable team when facing an opponent on a back-to-back since 2005 and the third-most profitable in the last decade in that spot.
The biggest advantage may be the first half: Since 2014, the Blazers are 37-14-2 (72.5%) against the first-half spread at home when facing a team coming off a back-to-back, covering the spread by 3.5 PPG.
They are 20-6-1 (76.9%) against the first-half spread in this spot when the opposing team is above .500 for the season. Looking forward to a 10:30 p.m. ET tip so I can sweat a Warriors 2-point win!
John Ewing: Kevin Knox Over 15.5 points
Since trading Tim Hardaway Jr., Kevin Knox has been more involved in the Knicks offense. Knox is averaging 16 shot attempts and 14.8 points per game in the six games following Hardaway’s departure, up from 12.2 attempts and 12.6 point average this season.
Knox has a good matchup against a 76ers team that ranks 28th in the league in points allowed to opposing forwards, and with Philly on a back-to-back, the team’s defense should be even more relaxed.
Matt Moore: Raptors -10 vs. Wizards
The Wizards have flummoxed sharps all year. When the percentage of money on the Wizards is 10% or more higher than the percentage of bets on them, the Wizards are 7-11 ATS.
However, when sharps fade them, and the money percentage is 10% higher than the ticket percentage on their opponent, sharps are 7-1 ATS.
The Raptors were getting as much as 25% more in money than the bet percentage early Wednesday. Toronto is only 7-12 ATS laying double digits, but with the Wizards’ trade moves, they are a better matchup for Toronto. This is also the Wizards’ third-straight road game, and teams in that spot have gone 83-122-5 this season.
Wednesday NBA: Pro System of the Day
At Bet Labs, we have a Pro NBA System called “Fade Tanking Teams.” It’s self-explanatory: Bad teams late in the season — especially when listed as home underdogs — have been overvalued by the betting market:
This system has produced a 12.3% Return on Investment (ROI) since 2004, although it is just 1-3 so far this year.
I wrote more about this system — and how to build on it by following injury news — here, so check that out.
There are two matches tonight:
- 76ers -9.5 at Knicks
- Nets -8 at Cavaliers
Wednesday NBA: Most Important Betting Trend for Every Game
- Nets at Cavs: The Nets are 32-26 ATS, including 17-11 on the road.
- Bucks at Pacers: The under is 21-8 in Pacers home games.
- Pistons at Celtics: The over is 19-11 in Celtics home games.
- Wizards at Raptors: The Wizards are 8-21 ATS on the road and 11-17 as underdogs.
- 76ers at Knicks: The under is 17-9 in Knicks home games and 9-4 in division games.
- Rockets at Wolves: The Rockets are just 10-17 ATS on the road.
- Grizzlies at Bulls: The under is 20-9 in Grizzlies away games and 22-13 when they’re dogs.
- Heat at Mavericks: The Heat are 17-11 ATS on the road and 16-10-1 as dogs.
- Kings at Nuggets: The over is 24-12 in Kings conference games.
- Warriors at Blazers: The Blazers are 20-11 ATS at home but 9-14 as dogs.
- Suns at Clippers: The Clippers are 19-9 ATS as favorites.