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NBA DFS Picks (Thu. 11/29): Marvin Bagley Is a Lock on DraftKings

Nov 29, 2018 5:54 PM EST
  • The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
  • To read full fantasy breakdowns for every NBA DFS slate this year, check out the FantasyLabs link below.

See the full version of this piece at FantasyLabs.

Thursday features a three-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.

Power Forward

Stud

Montrezl Harrell continues to absolutely smash, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.50 over his past 10 games. That said, his price has risen pretty drastically over the past month and currently sits at $8,500 on FanDuel for today’s matchup vs. the Kings.

It’s a nice spot, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.96, but it’s fair to wonder how much upside he has at his current salary. He’s a much more reasonable play on DraftKings, where his $7,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.

Value

Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sacramento Kings forward Marvin Bagley III (35).

It’s officially Marvin Bagley time in Sacramento. He’s played at least 30 minutes in each of his past two games and has unsurprisingly posted a positive Plus/Minus in both of them. He’s averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute this season, which makes him one of the easiest plays of the day at $5,300 on DraftKings.

Fast Break

Serge Ibaka failed to return value in his most recent contest, but his 35 minutes of playing time is encouraging. He’s averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.57 on DraftKings.

Domantas Sabonis has been a monster with Oladipo out of the lineup recently and is coming off 45.75 FanDuel points in his most recent contest. He has averaged 1.40 FanDuel points per minute with Oladipo off the floor this season and owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.17 vs. the Lakers.

Center

Stud

The emergence of Bagley is having a negative effect on Willie Cauley-Stein, who has played just 43 total minutes over his past two games. That said, he could be an interesting buy-low target today vs. the Clippers. He could be especially useful against the size of Boban Marjanovic, who could potentially draw the start with Marcin Gortat currently listed as questionable.

Value

Speaking of Boban, he’s impossible to ignore at just $3,500 on DraftKings. He’s an absolute monster when on the court, averaging 1.48 DraftKings points per minute, so he doesn’t need to play much to potentially return value at his current salary. He’s also in a great spot vs. the Kings, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.72 on DraftKings.

Fast Break

Myles Turner could be another member of the Pacers worth considering with Oladipo out of the lineup. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past six games and is coming off a season-high 45.75 DraftKings points in his most recent contest. He’s much more appealing on DraftKings, where his $6,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.

Click here to read the full breakdown at FantasyLabs.

Credit:

Photo credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Marvin Bagley

Follow Matt LaMarca on Twitter
@MattLaMarca

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