NBA Fresh Perspective: Sixth Man of the Year Odds

The NBA Sixth Man of the Year Award is one that is often ridiculed for its flatness and semi-absurdity. However, as we cross into 2024, it’s the award that holds the most intrigue for bettors right now. Most of the other awards hold a heavy favorite already, and while there can be a nuance to approaching those markets, it’s far more interesting to discuss a race that is still relatively open.

As such, let’s use Brandon Anderson’s well-researched parameters as always, and dig into where this award stands right now.

For this award, we want: a 16-to-18 PPG scorer, preferably a guard, on a 50-win playoff team.

The Five Favorites

• Tim Hardaway Jr — +300, BetRivers
• Bogdan Bogdanovic — +450, Multiple 
• Malik Monk — +550, DraftKings
• Austin Reaves — +800, BetRivers
• Cole Anthony — +900, DraftKings

All five of these guys fit our rules above almost perfectly. All five average between 14 and 18 ppg; all five are guards; and while their team records are spread out a bit, if you use adjusted net rating, they're all VERY much in the same tier. 

On the one hand, that would seem to lean towards going with the longest shot, but my favorite of this bunch at their current numbers is actually Bogdanovic. He’s the leading scorer of the bunch so far, as well as the leader in FGA per game. The Hawks have the worst record of the bunch, but as noted if we adjust for schedule and luck, they’re not far off pace from the rest. Bogdan has also had the most notable impact by on-off numbers, and he’s the best by almost all the advanced metrics. These often aren’t the determining factor, but if things stay this close, it could well be the tiebreaker.

He’s also trending the right direction, as over the past month, he’s EASILY the leading bench scorer, averaging 20.9 PPG compared to THJ second at 18.3 and the rest all even lower (including the “longshot” of this bunch, Cole Anthony, down at 12.5 per game).

If you don’t have any bets on this market yet, I like Bogdanovic at +450, available at many books.

Middle Tier

• Bobby Portis — +2500, Multiple
• Bennedict Mathurin — +2500, Multiple
• Naz Reid — +3300, PointsBet
• Caris LeVert — +3500, FanDuel
• Trey Murphy III — +4000, Multiple
• Norman Powell — +4500, DraftKings
• Immanuel Quickley — +5000, DraftKings

There are two names here we can kill right off the bat. Quickley has moved into a starting role in Toronto and given how high I am on him, I am very much not predicting he moves back to the bench there any time soon, so he will likely end up starting too many games for this award. Murphy has already missed 23 games, which means he quite literally cannot win this award. Players need to have played 65 games this year, which is going to be a MASSIVE thing to watch as the season goes along. Lonnie Walker IV is another player ineligible who is currently being listed at books. If the books are going to continue listing players who are ineligible, it could be a huge gap for bettors to take advantage of, as it theoretically cuts into the hold the book has on the market.

Next, I’m going to kill off the two big men. Portis and Reid both are strong players, but their PPG are notably lower than the rest of the candidates here, and high-scoring guards have historically dominated this award, as we noted via Brandon’s rules.

I like each of the final three names left, so let’s address them individually. 

He started the season in the starting lineup but made the move to the bench on November 21 and has actually improved his scoring since: 14.7 up from 13.0 as a starter. Of late, he’s been even better, averaging 15.8 since Dec 11. However, at the shortest number, he’s also my least favorite of these three mostly because the past month feels like around his ceiling and by PPG, he is still shy of the cases the top tier will have.

The biggest worry here is that he has already missed eight games, which puts him on pace to play 63 games, which, again, would be just under that key eligibility line. However, he’s been at his best since his last return, averaging 18.2 PPG since Dec. 12 — very much putting him in the THJ/Bogdan tier. With Garland and Mobley out, there are more looks for LeVert, and he appears safe from entering the starting lineup, unlike some players like Reaves who dance the line between starter and bench, another key element to notice when capping this award. Guys who are an injury away from entering the starting lineup hold less value.

Here’s my favorite from this tier, though. He is yet to miss a game this season; he’s also yet to start a game, and his name has been in the running for this award in several seasons past. His points per game are trending the right way, scoring 15.2 PPG in the past month, up from 11.9 in the first month-plus of the season. Now, he has a bit of the ceiling problem we noted Mathurin has, but at nearly twice as long a number, and on a better team and with less games played risk than any other candidate, I’m fine taking the nibble here.

If you've been following me in the app, you're sitting on Hardaway at +3000 and Bogdanovic at +1100 (as well as Chris Paul and Immanuel Quickley tickets we can ignore), and I like adding a sprinkle on Powell to keep the portfolio fresh right now. Powell is +4500 at DraftKings right now.

Notable Longshots

• Jaime Jaquez Jr. — +10000, BetRivers
• Dennis Schroder — +10000, BetRivers
• Duncan Robinson — +20000, DraftKings

Schroder would appear to be a sharp play. He’s a volume scorer who just got bumped to the bench, but will rack up plenty of bench “starts” by the end of the season. However, in his four games off the bench so far, he’s seen a notable drop in usage. He’s averaging just 13.0 PPG and more importantly, he’s getting only nine FGA a game, which means he wouldn’t even project out to that 13.0 number if that level of usage were to maintain. I’ll keep an eye here, but he’s definitely not worth a play just yet.

The two Heat guys are much more interesting. Ironically, it appears as though Jaquez has replaced Robinson in the starting lineup of late, but with Miami, the pieces are constantly shuffling. However, there’s reasons to not quite pull the trigger on either right now. The Heat have looked really good with Jaquez in the starting lineup, and I could very well see him sticking there, and thus taking himself out of this award. That would seem to open the door for Robinson in this award, but it’s notable that he’s averaging far less off the bench (12.8 PPG) than as a starter (16.4 PPG). That fact, combined with the fact that he’s been dancing on the line of starter/bench player makes it so I am fine watching this for the next few weeks. That being said, if you want to take a tiny nibble at this +20000 number, I don’t hate it. I just think prudence is the play for now.

Key Takeaways

• Bettors with no bets in this market yet should bet Bogdanovic at +450

• If you have Tim Hardaway Jr. and Bogdanovic at solid numbers, add a sprinkle on Powell at +4500 at DraftKings

• Players to keep an eye on: LeVert (if he stays healthy and continues his scoring bump with Garland out), Mathurin (if his ceiling bumps higher than it is right now), Schroder (if he finds his niche off the bench), the two Heat guys — Jaquez and Robinson (to see how the starting situation plays out)