2021 NBA Draft Lottery: Odds, Perceived Edges & Implied Probabilities

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Photo by Randy Belice/NBAE via Getty Images.Pictured: KiKi VanDeWeghe

The 2021 NBA Draft Lottery will take place on Tuesday at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Below are the real probabilities for each team participating, along with the betting odds and implied probabilities according to PointsBet.

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Houston Rockets 

(This pick will convey to the Oklahoma City Thunder if it’s outside of the top four. There is a 52.1% chance the Rockets keep their first rounder.)

  • Odds to win No. 1 pick: 14%
  • Odds to win top four pick: 52.1%
  • Betting odds to win No. 1 pick: +550
  • Implied probability, according to The Action Network: 15.4%
  • Perceived edge: -1.4%
  • Most likely scenarios: 5th pick (47.9%), 1st (14%)
  • Lowest possible pick: 5th

Detroit Pistons 

  • Odds to win No. 1 pick: 14%
  • Odds to win top four pick: 52.1%
  • Betting odds to win No. 1 pick: +550
  • Implied probability, according to The Action Network: 15.4%
  • Perceived edge: -1.4%
  • Most likely scenarios: 5th pick (27.8%), 6th (20.1%)
  • Lowest possible pick: 6th

Orlando Magic

  • Odds to win No. 1 pick: 14%
  • Odds to win top four pick: 52.1%
  • Betting odds to win No. 1 pick: +550
  • Implied probability, according to The Action Network: 15.4%
  • Perceived edge: -1.4%
  • Most likely scenarios: 6th pick (26%), 5th (14.8%)
  • Lowest possible pick: 7th (7.1%)

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Odds to win No. 1 pick: 11.5%
  • Odds to win top four pick: 45.1%
  • Betting odds to win No. 1 pick: +650
  • Implied probability, according to The Action Network: 13.3%
  • Perceived edge: -1.8%
  • Most likely scenarios: 6th pick (27.1%), 7th (18%)
  • Lowest possible pick: 8th (2.4%)

Cleveland Cavaliers

  • Odds to win No. 1 pick: 11.5%
  • Odds to win top four pick: 45.1%
  • Betting odds to win No. 1 pick: +650
  • Implied probability, according to The Action Network: 13.3%
  • Perceived edge: -1.8%
  • Most likely scenario: 7th pick (25.5%), 6th (18.2%)
  • Lowest possible pick: 9th (0.6%)

Minnesota Timberwolves 

(This pick will convey to the Golden State Warriors if it’s outside of the top three. There is a 27.6% chance the Timberwolves keep their first rounder.)

  • Odds to win No. 1 pick: 9%
  • Odds to win top four pick: 37.2%
  • Betting odds to win No. 1 pick: +900
  • Implied probability, according to The Action Network: 10%
  • Perceived edge: -1%
  • Most likely scenario: 7th pick (29.7%), 8th (20.6%)
  • Lowest possible picks: 9th (3.8%), 10th (0.2%)

Toronto Raptors

  • Odds to win No. 1 pick: 7.5%
  • Odds to win top four pick: 31.9%
  • Betting odds to win No. 1 pick: +1100
  • Implied probability, according to The Action Network: 8.3%
  • Perceived edge: -0.8%
  • Most likely scenario: 8th pick (33.9%)
  • Lowest possible picks: 9th (13%), 10th (1.4%)

Chicago Bulls

(This pick will convey to the Orlando Magic if it’s outside of the top four. There is a 20.3% chance the Bulls keep their first rounder.)

  • Odds to win No. 1 pick: 4.5%
  • Odds to win top four pick: 20.3%
  • Betting odds to win No. 1 pick: +1600
  • Implied probability, according to The Action Network: 5.9%
  • Perceived edge: -1.4%
  • Most likely scenario: 9th pick (36.2%)
  • Lowest possible pick: 10th (8.5%), 11th (0.5%)

Sacramento Kings

  • Odds to win No. 1 pick: 4.5%
  • Odds to win top four pick: 20.3%
  • Betting odds to win No. 1 pick: +1600
  • Implied probability, according to The Action Network: 5.9%
  • Perceived edge: -1.4%
  • Most likely scenario: 9th pick (46.4%)
  • Lowest possible picks: 11th (3.9%), 12th (0.1%)

New Orleans Pelicans

  • Odds to win No. 1 pick: 4.5%
  • Odds to win top four pick: 20.3%
  • Betting odds to win No. 1 pick: +1600
  • Implied probability, according to The Action Network: 5.9%
  • Perceived edge: -1.4%
  • Most likely scenario: 10th pick (60.6%)
  • Lowest possible pick: 11th (17.9%), 12th (1.2%)

Charlotte Hornets

  • Odds to win No. 1 pick: 1.8%
  • Odds to win top four pick: 8.5%
  • Betting odds to win No. 1 pick: +4000
  • Implied probability, according to The Action Network: 2.4%
  • Perceived edge: -0.6%
  • Most likely scenario: 11th pick (77.6%)
  • Lowest possible picks: 12th (13.4%), 13th (0.4%)

San Antonio Spurs

  • Odds to win No. 1 pick: 1.7%
  • Odds to win top four pick: 8%
  • Betting odds to win No. 1 pick: +5500
  • Implied probability, according to The Action Network: 1.8%
  • Perceived edge: -0.1%
  • Most likely scenario: 12th pick (85.2%)
  • Lowest possible picks: 13th (6.6%), 14th (0.1%)

Indiana Pacers

  • Odds to win No. 1 pick: 1%
  • Odds to win top four pick: 4.8%
  • Betting odds to win No. 1 pick: +8000
  • Implied probability, according to The Action Network: 1.2%
  • Perceived edge: -0.2%
  • Most likely scenario: 13th pick (92.9%)
  • Lowest possible pick: 14th (2.3%)

Golden State Warriors

  • Odds to win No. 1 pick: 0.5%
  • Odds to win top four pick: 2.4%
  • Betting odds to win No. 1 pick: +15000
  • Implied probability, according to The Action Network: 0.7%
  • Perceived edge: -0.2%
  • Most likely scenario: 14th pick (97.6%)
  • Lowest possible pick: 14th 
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