After a three-game road trip against NBA Finals contenders, the Celtics return home as heavy favorites against the Wizards tonight. Boston has dominated the series between these teams lately and that should continue here despite the emergence of Will Riley and arrival of Trae Young.
Meanwhile, in the marquee matchup of the evening, the Nuggets will visit the Lakers for a high stakes Western Conference showdown, and I'll be targeting Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic in that game.
Let's get into my NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Saturday, March 14.
NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Saturday
Wizards vs Celtics Parlay Preview
The Angle: Will Riley's Expanded Opportunity
Will Riley Over 12.5 Points
If you are going to bet a Wizards game at this stage of the year, it is important to check on not only who is playing, but how long they might be playing for.
Trae Young has now played three games as a Wizards, but he has only played 19, 18, and 21 minutes. The same goes for Alex Sarr and Tre Johnson, who have been hovering around 20 minutes.
None of them have seen many minutes in the fourth quarter of late.
The Wizards may have enough to compete for at least a spot in the Play-In Tournament next season with Young, Johnson, Sarr, and the eventual debut of Anthony Davis among others.
However, the focus on the remainder of this season is securing a top pick and possible franchise player that aligns with the timeline of their young core.
One player that will be fighting for minutes in next year's rotation is Will Riley.
Riley was the 21st pick in a promising 2025 NBA Draft class. He brings an intriguing skill set as a 6'9 combo forward and is averaging 8.4 points in 19 minutes per game this season.
He has scored just 11 points in two games against Boston this season. However, over his last 10 games, he is averaging 15 points and has a 20% usage rate. He has also averaged 32 minutes per game, playing 30 minutes or more seven times in that stretch.
That extra playing time has helped him score 18 points five times with 22 against Miami. While tonight's matchup is difficult, Riley may see several minutes against the end of the Celtics' roster if tonight's game goes as expected.
Pick: Will Riley Over 12.5 Points
The Contrarian SGP: Riley Points, Young Assists, Celtics Spread
Trae Young 6+ Assists
Despite the limited minutes, Young has had six assists in all three games as a Wizards.
After converting all six of his potential assists against Utah, Young had 14 potential assists against New Orleans and 19 against Orlando.
Dating back to his time with Atlanta, Young has now had six assists in nine of his last 10 games.
While with the Hawks, Young also had many battles with the Celtics.
In 19 career games against the Celtics, he is averaging 24.6 points and 7.7 assists. Since his rookie year, he has six assists in 15 of his last 17 games against Boston.
In one of those games, he only played 23 minutes, which may be a similar scenario tonight.
Pick: Trae Young 6+ Assists
Celtics -19.5
With two Wizards props, you may think I am backing them tonight, but that certainly is not the case.
If Riley scores 13-20 points and Young has six assists, that is only about 35 points of a game with a total over 230 points.
Meanwhile, the Celtics are returning home and probably in a bad mood after road losses to the Spurs and Thunder.
That particularly may be the case for Jaylen Brown, who was ejected on Tuesday and immediately went to X to voice his frustration.
Well, they return home to take on a Wizards team they have dominated during their rebuild.
Boston has won each of the last 10 meetings and nine of them have been double digits.
Despite several large spreads, Boston is 6-3-1 against the spread in that span as well. They have taken the first two meetings this season 136-107 and 146-101 as 10.5 and 12.5-point favorites.
The Wizards have lost 20 games by 20 points this season and several others by 19 points.
Boston has won 14 games by 20 games this season. It is fifth in the NBA with a +7.6 net rating at home. It will boost that mark with another 20-point victory over the Wizards.
Pick: Celtics -19.5
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+600)
- Will Riley Over 12.5 Points
- Trae Young 6+ Assists
- Celtics -19.5
Compounding Angle (+1500)
- Will Riley 18+ Points
- Trae Young 6+ Assists
- Celtics -19.5
Nuggets vs Lakers Parlay Preview
The Angle: Murray Torches the Lakers With Assistance From Jokic
Jamal Murray Over 25.5 Points
Jamal Murray has long been one of the league's best performers in the playoffs and usually raises his game in crunch time.
However, entering the season, he was the rare co-star who become a NBA champion before he made the All-Star team.
That is no more as he made his first All-Star team this season and an All-NBA spot is not out of the question. He is averaging 25.7 points and 7.1 assists on 48/43/88 shooting splits.
However, the Lakers and their fans will tell you Murray probably should have been an All-Star years ago.
Just last Thursday, Murray had 28 points and seven assists against the Lakers in Denver.
Murray has averaged 23.6 points in past 13 games against the Lakers. He has scored 26 points or more in his past three games against them.
The Lakers are 16th in 3s allowed and 20th in 3-pointers allowed to point guards.
Murray has made four 3s in five of the last six meetings. Four triples tonight will get him halfway to clearing this line.
He has scored 26 points in five of his last eight games, going for 30 in four of them.
Pick: Jamal Murray Over 25.5 Points
The Contrarian SGP: Nuggets' Stars Shine While Game Goes Under
Nikola Jokic 10+ Assists
When they are both healthy, the success of Murray is often correlated with Nikola Jokic.
The three-time MVP has had no problem scoring against the Lakers himself, averaging 27.6 points in his last 12 games against them. However, he is also averaging 9.3 assists in that span.
Jokic has recorded a triple-double in five of his last 12 games against the Lakers.
In a bit of a rarity for him, Jokic had a recent stretch with several games with five or six assists.
That ended against Los Angeles as he had 13 assists in the Nuggets' victory last week.
He has now had 12 assists or more in four of his last games with Murray scoring 28 points or more in three of them.
Pick: Nikola Jokic 10+ Assists
Under 244.5 Points
One trend I noticed when looking at the last meeting is how often these head-to-head matchups go under.
The Nuggets lead the league in offensive rating and the Lakers are eighth while the two teams are 20th and 21st in defensive rating. Yet, eight of the last 11 meetings have went under the total.
Now, both teams had extremely high-scoring games on Thursday with Nuggets-Spurs finishing 267 points and Bulls-Lakers finishing with 272 points. That may have caused tonight's total to raise a bit as well.
However, in the last two Nuggets-Lakers that had a total over 240 points, they finished with 223 points and 233 points last Thursday.
If tonight's game lands in the 220-230 range, that will be comfortably under tonight's total, but also high for Murray, Jokic, and the Lakers' stars to get their numbers as well.
The Lakers are also 3-7 to the under in their past 10 games.
Pick: Under 244.5
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+525)
- Jamal Murray Over 25.5 Points
- Nikola Jokic 10+ Assists
- Under 244.5
Compounding Angle (+1600)
- Jamal Murray 30+ Points
- Nikola Jokic 12+ Assists
- Under 244.5
