The Denver Nuggets (41-26) and Los Angeles Lakers (41-25) will square off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET from Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California. The game will broadcast live on ABC.
The Nuggets are 3-point favorites over the Lakers on the spread (Nuggets -3), with the over/under set at 246.5 total points. Denver is a -155 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Los Angeles is +130 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Nuggets vs. Lakers predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, March 14.
Nuggets vs Lakers Prediction, Pick
- Nuggets vs Lakers pick: Lakers +3 (-110)
My Lakers vs. Nuggets best bet is on Los Angeles to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Nuggets vs Lakers Odds
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 246.5 -105o / -115u | -155 |
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 246.5 -105o / -115u | +130 |
Nuggets vs Lakers NBA Preview
This is a legitimate playoff-level game. The season series between the Nuggets and Lakers is tied 1-1, with only tonight's game left to play.
This game decides the tiebreaker in a seeding race with Denver one game back in the loss column. Both teams legitimately need this game.
The Nuggets have everyone back except Peyton Watson. They are riding high coming off wins over Houston and San Antonio, but this is a 3rd-game-in-4-nights spot for them.
I think the spread for this game should be a pick‘em at best. If anything, the Lakers should probably be favored by a point or two.
Across the season, the Nuggets have been the better team, even with horrible injury luck.
The Lakers had a negative point-differential until the last two weeks and have struggled to beat good teams. So, I understand why some people may not consider them on the same level as Denver.
However, should they be 3.5-point home underdogs against a team that is having a hard time defensively? When the Lakers are coming off wins of their own against the Knicks and Timberwolves, breaking their streak of failing to beat teams over .500?
The Nuggets are in a bad travel spot after two grueling games against the Rockets and Spurs, after playing the Thunder on Monday.
This is Denver's fourth game in six nights, and it's a Saturday night primetime game that will have a lot of juice. Then, there’s the matchup.
The Nuggets took the previous meeting in impressive fashion behind 56 points from Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic. The Lakers’ offense never found its footing, and Denver controlled throughout the game.
However, JJ Redick has shown a willingness and ability to build specific game plans to disrupt teams — particularly Jokic. Oddly enough though, he employed very little of that in the last game.
The Lakers didn’t front as much as you would expect with Rui Hachimura in the post and didn’t send guard help low, which disrupts Jokic because of the chances of an offensive foul (little guys get to do whatever they want defensively against bigs).
The Lakers had a pretty vanilla game plan in that contest. I’m expecting a lot more bells-and-whistles in coverage tonight.
Nuggets vs Lakers Predictions, Betting Analysis
Lakers +3
The Lakers’ defense is still vulnerable, especially to the league’s top-ranked offense, but disrupting specific mechanisms through matchups is a big leg-up in the regular season when no one does that.
The Nuggets struggle to contain on-ball creators, but they built an effective wall in the last matchup.
Austin Reaves should be better given who’s guarding him, and the Lakers will know they need to play Jaxson Hayes a lot in this matchup — who was good in his minutes and counters Jokic well with his rim running.
Then, there’s this: the Lakers are three percentage points better in eFG% at home than they are on the road, and they are also better from three-point range.
If the Nuggets are going to load up on Luka Doncic, making perimeter shots will matter — and Denver gives up the seventh-most three-pointers in the league.
I get it. It’s scary. But, as well as the Nuggets have played, the Lakers are playing better overall, they are at home, and they are catching points in this game. So, I’ll grab the Lakers +3.5.
Over 246.5 (Lean)
I’m staying away from the total.
For starters, both teams are in the bottom-10 in pace. For another, both teams have been playing marginally better defense against tough competition the last two weeks.
I project this total at 247, but this is a game with high stakes — and those games typically go Under because the defensive effort goes up.
You can’t really play an Under here though, with how good both offenses are and how bad both defenses are.
The Occam’s Razor play is the Over, and I don’t blame you for betting on points.
I just don’t like where both teams are at, the spot, and the market movement — which already juiced this number from a high starting point.
Rui Hachimura Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
As I said, the Nuggets are a bottom-three team in opponent corner three-point attempts, and Hachimura is the Lakers' most consistent volume shooter from the corners.
Look for him to catch-and-hit threes off the gravity Doncic creates.
Nuggets vs Lakers Best Bets
- Lakers +3 (-110)
- Over 246.5 (Lean)
- Rui Hachimura Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+110)
Spread
My Nuggets vs. Lakers betting prediction is on Los Angeles to cover the spread (+3).
Moneyline
No play on the moneyline in tonight's game.
Over/Under
I also lean toward the Over at 246.5 total points — but ultimately, I'm steering clear of the total.
