NBA Odds, Best Bets Today: Expert Picks for Thunder vs Pelicans

Tuesday night's Play-In games were much more competitive than the odds suggested they would be and we saw underdogs push the higher seeds with a playoff spot on the line. Wednesday's NBA Play-In games bring another level of desperation with all four teams in must-win mode. Tonight we'll get Bulls vs. Raptors (7 p.m. ET) and Thunder vs. Pelicans (9:30 p.m. ET) for our doubleheader.

Our analysts have four best bets today, all player props. Read on for their expert picks and predictions for Wednesday's Play-In games below.

NBA Odds & Best Bets

Chicago Bulls vs. Toronto Raptors

Brandon Anderson: The Raptors are a really difficult team to figure out. They somehow rank top 12 in both Offensive and Defensive Rating along with Net Rating, but the team can't seem to win any games and the fans have long since turned on them and seem ready to get off this ride.

The one thing we know the Raptors do is win the turnovers battle. Toronto ranks No. 1 in both fewest turnovers given up and most turnovers forced, and the Raptors basically just try to math their way into extra possessions and close the gap in quality that way.

Well, the Bulls have their turnover problems at times and against Toronto, Nikola Vucevic has had huge issues. Vucevic played all 82 games and averaged only 1.7 turnovers a game, and he had four or more turnovers only 11 times. But in three games against Toronto, Vucevic racked up four, five, and six turnovers, averaging 5.0 per game with two of his worst three turnover outings of the season. And now the Raptors defense has been better than ever with Jakob Poeltl too. It'll be very surprising if Vucevic can handle the pressure.

I only wish we could find an alternate over or way to escalate this, but we'll have to settle for a multi-unit play on Vucevic over 1.5 turnovers instead.

Chicago Bulls vs. Toronto Raptors

Bryan Fonseca: I'm a tad surprised that this number is -110 for a few reasons.

One, Alex Caruso is a decent bet to get two steals straight up in a "playoff-like" atmosphere. At the very least, a win or go home game. Second, he's one of the better shot-blocking guards in the league, and just had two blocks (and zero steals) in his final regular season game. As far as being over 1.5 steals + blocks — stocks — Caruso's hit that mark in three of his last five games.

And last year, while the Bulls gave the Milwaukee Bucks a minor scare with a Game 2 road win in the first round of their series, Caruso made big defensive play after big defensive play, finishing with two steals and two blocks. He got at least two stocks in three of four games until missing the elimination one due to injury.

I think he hits this prop in a do or die situation against the Raptors, given the Bulls defense as of late, even knowing the Raptors cough up the fewest turnovers in the league (11.7 per contest).

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Andrew O'Connor-Watts: Ingram’s playmaking has taken a leap forward in the past few weeks, but the books have caught up to his assists number.

Ingram is averaging 8.5 assists and 12.5 potential assists over the past 10 games. Despite averaging more per game than tonight’s line, he’s cleared eight dimes just five times in the past 10 games. In four of those games he had 10 or more. When he’s dishing, it comes in bunches.

There’s a similar trend with his rebounds line, which is also at 7.5. Ingram’s averaging 7.6 per game in his last 10, but cleared the number just four times. However, three of those four times, he grabbed double-digit boards.

He’s had two triple-doubles in that span and I see value on that number as well for a small wager (to win one unit), but make sure you get +700 or better.

For the sake of a higher-probability bet, let’s bet on Ingram to record a double-double. I bet it at +140 to win one unit and I’d bet it down to +123.

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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Chris Baker: I like CJ McCollum to have a big night tonight as he should draw an easier matchup than Brandon Ingram. I would anticipate Ingram being guarded by a combination of Jaylen Williams/Luguentz Dort all night long. This should leave Josh Giddey or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on McCollum. These are more favorable matchups for McCollum and I would expect him to be able to get to his spots against these two.

I am anticipating a Usage Rate bump for McCollum after Ingram struggled to get to his spots against Anthony Edwards on Sunday. Ingram was dominant for the most part, finishing with 42 points on 16-of-28 shooting but he undeniably struggled when being defended by Edwards. Edwards forced a number of turnovers and blocked a ton of Ingram’s shots on Sunday. I highlight Edwards because he has a very similar body frame to Luguentz Dort. Both guys are low to the ground and strong enough to bump Ingram off of his spots without fouling. Ingram finished with 42 points but it was clearly a sub-optimal offensive game plan as the team had an offensive rating of 105.9 and effectively shot just 46.1% from the field (9th percentile).

Ingram has averaged a massive 34.9% Usage Rate across his last 13 games while McCollum has been down at just 23.7% usage rate across the same stretch. I would expect much more of a balance here given how difficult Ingram’s matchup should be. There really is no other ball-handler to defer too besides McCollum so expect his usage rate to be closer to 30% tonight. We could also see a minutes increase given how injured this pelicans team is and how important this game is. This is their season, if they lose they are out so I would expect them to go all in on winning this game with no concern for minutes management or rest.

This is a pace up-spot as the Thunder finished the season as the 3rd fastest team in the NBA. We should see a few extra offensive possessions tonight against this up-tempo Thunder team. Take CJ McCollum to clear 22.5 points at -108 over on Caesars and play this up to 23.5 with normal juice.