NBA Odds, Expert Picks, Predictions: 2 Best Bets For Saturday, Including Mavericks vs. Raptors, Lakers vs. Spurs (November 26)
Ronald Cortes/Getty Images. Pictured: LeBron James #6 of the Los Angeles Lakers.
Four Saturday games, two Saturday bets.
Today’s NBA slate doesn’t quite compare to Friday’s in terms of volume, but our NBA analysts are still looking to bet two of today’s games: Mavericks vs. Raptors and Lakers vs. Spurs. The Mavericks and Raptors have both had two days off since they last played on Wednesday, while the Lakers and Spurs are playing the second set of a back-to-back after they met on Friday night.
NBA Odds & Picks
Dallas Mavericks vs. Toronto Raptors
Chris Baker: This number is just off given the current state of the Raptors’ roster. The Raptors will be down at least five of their players, including potentially three starters: Fred VanVleet (questionable), Scottie Barnes (out), and Pascal Siakam (out).
I like this whether or not VanVleet plays due to the massive matchup advantage the Mavericks have here. The Mavs rank first in the NBA in corner 3-point rate and they rank third in overall 3-point rate. The Raptors’ defense allows the most corner 3s in the NBA. This team doesn’t do a good enough job guarding the 3-point line and that is a massive issue when you are trying to limit this Mavericks team.
These teams matched up fully healthy back on Nov. 4 and the Mavericks dominated the game but the box score ended up appearing close due to a pointless end of game 3-point heave that cut the score from four to one. The Mavericks were up 15 going into the fourth and they pretty much controlled the game from start to finish. Keep in mind that the Raptors had Siakam for this game. He was playing at an MVP level and was undeniably the Raptors most valuable player.
Ultimately these teams have similar records, but are not very close when it comes to efficiency as Dallas ranks fifth in Adjusted Net Rating and the Raptors rank just 13th.
I expect Dallas to come out focused off of a loss and make a statement in Toronto on Saturday night. Trust the Mavericks to cover the -2.5.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. San Antonio Spurs
Andrew O’Connor-Watts: This line seems way off to me. Yesterday, we saw this same matchup playout. This line opened at 227.5 at Circa and got bet up to 234.5 where it closed. The Lakers ended up winning 105-94.
The Lakers offense has been better lately with an Offensive Rating of 111.4 in the past five games, which could have something to do with why this number is high. Admittedly, L.A. has also consistently been in the top five in Pace, but their defense is still elite and the Spurs offense has been the worst in the league in that five-game span.
We’re also talking about two of the lowest-scoring teams in the league. The Lakers are averaging 105.8 points per game, while the Spurs at 101.2 are ahead of only the Miami Heat.
Recent trends also agree with an under. The past three meetings have gone under. The Lakers are 5-2 to the under on the road, and the under has hit in six of the last seven meetings in San Antonio and eight of the Spurs last 12 games have gone under.