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Warriors vs. Trail Blazers NBA Odds & Picks: Bet on Portland’s Shooters Against Golden State

Warriors vs. Trail Blazers NBA Odds & Picks: Bet on Portland’s Shooters Against Golden State article feature image

Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Damien Lillard.

  • The Blazers live and die by their 3-point shooting. And the Warriors, well, have a very mediocre 3-point defense.
  • Will this advantage be enough for Portland to overcome against Golden State on Wednesday night?
  • NBA betting analyst Kenny Ducey previews the matchup and breaks down his pick below.

Warriors vs. Trail Blazers Odds

Warriors Odds-2
Trail Blazers Odds+2
Moneyline-110 / -110
Time10 p.m. ET
Odds as of noon ET on Wednesday morning and via FanDuel

Teams on the opposite ends of lopsided games their last time out will meet on Wednesday night in what should be a very tight affair. The Warriors come in trying to shake the embarrassment of Sunday's loss to the Lakers and get back on its winning run, while the Trail Blazers will be hoping not to fall back into their poor form and build a winning streak off a win against the Hornets.

With such tight margins everywhere, we'll need to dig a bit into the matchup to find a value in this game. Let's do that.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors come in off a devastating beatdown at the hands of the Lakers, falling by 26 points and mustering up just 91 on Sunday.

There aren't any new injuries to speak of — just a sprained ankle for Draymond Green, which shouldn't keep him out of this one. He hurt it in the second half of the loss, but was able to practice in full with the Warriors this week.

That performance came right as the Warriors had begun to hit their stride. Golden State picked up big wins over some pretty decent competition in New York, Indiana and Charlotte. All told, the Warriors had won seven of 10 prior to Sunday.

Over those 11 games, their defense has continued to shine. No one has allowed fewer points per 100 possessions over the past 11 games than the Warriors, who hold a 105.7 Defensive Rating over that span. And that's come despite allowing 38.2% of shots to fall from outside — a testament to their strong frontcourt play headed by Green as well as returning bigs Kevon Looney and James Wiseman.

The Warriors began a three-win streak once Looney and Wiseman healed from injury, and the impact the two have made on the offensive end deserves some praise: Golden State ranks fourth in points in the paint over that four-game span.

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers needed a win in bad way after having dropped four straight, and they picked it up against the fatigued Hornets, catching them on the second night of a back-to-back for a fairly lopsided win to cover the eight-point spread.

Portland is still dealing with an injury to Harry Giles, who will sit for a seventh straight game. Otherwise, it should be in the clear to run out the same team that shellacked Charlotte. In that game, Portland hit a franchise-record 24 3-pointers, and turned to Carmelo Anthony of all people for a team-high 29 points. He was spectacular off the bench, and helped the Blazers pull away in the second half.

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If there's one thing that the Blazers have proven to us they'll do, it's shoot. They rank second in 3s made and 3s attempted per game. And for the season their 3-point percentage is 36.9%, which isn't spectacular but isn't horrible, either, considering the volume they shoot at.

Portland will be disappointed not to play this game in Oakland, holding a 12-6 record against the spread (ATS) on the road and just a 6-9 ATS record at home. Though Monday's win came in Portland, it hasn't been the best spot to back the Blazers, nor has the game after a win, when they're 9-9 ATS.

Warriors-Trail Blazers Pick

Putting aside the ATS trends, I do think this Portland team is well-equipped to sneak past Golden State. The Blazers live and die by the 3, and we know the strategy in this one will be to get a huge number of 3s up. Against a very mediocre 3-point defense, the Blazers should shoot above their season average and be one of the few teams of late to score on this Warriors defense.

On the interior, the Warriors have somewhat of an edge over the Blazers, who give up 51 points in the paint on average — but that's where the frontcourt advantage should end. With Portland's aforementioned affinity for the 3-ball, I don't see the Blazers getting fazed by this defense. They should be able to control the game from outside and simply out-score the Warriors in what could turn into a high-scoring affair, for Golden State's standards.

It's always a risk backing a team coming off a hot shooting night, but the Blazers' shooters are proven. Even if one or two have an off night, there is seemingly unlimited depth on the wing.

I like them to win this game. FanDuel is offering +114 — the best price as of noon ET.

Pick: Blazers ML +114

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Nick Sterling
Mar 2, 2024 UTC