Clippers vs. Pacers Odds, Picks & Predictions: How To Bet This Game Without Myles Turner
A.J. Mast/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Myles Turner.
- The LA Clippers play the first of a three-game road trip against the Indiana Pacers Tuesday night.
- Both teams will be a bit shorthanded with Kawhi Leonard and Myles Turner sitting out.
- Brandon Anderson explains why the total has some value due to that injury news.
Clippers vs. Pacers Odds
|Moneyline||-140 / +120|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Tuesday and via PointsBet|
It’s a rare TNT appearance tonight for the Indiana Pacers when they face the Los Angeles Clippers on Tuesday night. The Clippers won at home in the first matchup between these teams, grabbing a 10-point lead in the first quarter and nearly doubling Indiana up in the third to coast to a huge 33-point victory.
Malcolm Brogdon had a miserable night in that one, shooting 7-of-21 from the field. The Pacers were shorthanded with three expected starters out, while only Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis were in the lineup.
Unfortunately, the Pacers aren’t much healthier this time around. Myles Turner is out with an ankle injury, so he’ll miss both Clippers matchups this season. T.J. Warren is out as well, as he has been all season. Indiana does have Caris LeVert healthy now, but the it’s still undermanned.
The Clippers are missing a couple starters with both Patrick Beverley and Serge Ibaka sidelined. It looks like Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are healthy, though you never know with those two, especially since this is the first night of a back-to-back for both teams and either superstar has sometimes sat out games like this.
Be sure to watch for team news before you make your play.
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers sit at 37-18 on the season, and LA entered the week with the No. 2 Net Rating in the NBA at +7.1, per Basketball Reference. That’s a pretty impressive mark, considering that this team really hasn’t been whole very often this season. Reggie Jackson and Ivica Zubac have been starting with Beverley and Ibaka out, and the Clippers best starting five has not played together since February.
Their best five — Beverley, Ibaka, Leonard, George and Nicolas Batum — have only played 16 games together all year. With the team constantly shuffling pieces, it’s all the more impressive to keep such strong overall team metrics.
The Clippers have won five straight and 11 of their last 13, so things are trending in the right direction, despite the missing pieces. And it’s still mostly because of the lights-out shooting, as it has been all year. LA has the No. 1 Offensive Rating in the NBA, per Basketball Reference. The Clippers lead the league in both 3-point percentage (42.1%) and free throw percentage (83.9%). Led by Leonard and George, the team has lit up the nets all season long.
So far, it looks like Rajon Rondo should be a nice addition to the team. He’s played 68 minutes off the bench in four appearances and has already racked up 19 assists in that time. That’s one dime every 3.6 minutes on the court. That’s double-digit assists per 36 minutes, and it’s added some much-needed playmaking to the team.
The truth is that the rest of the Clippers’ profile doesn’t stand out that much. They are just fine on 2-point shots and rank 27th in free throw rate and around the middle of the league in 3-point attempts. The defensive profile is mostly fine too, helped out by LA’s slow pace and the fact that the Clippers are so efficient scoring the rock that the team gets to play half-court defense so much of the time.
With LA, as it has all season, it really just comes down to the same thing: The Clippers are hitting more shots than anyone else, and it turns out that that works.
The Pacers are 25-27, and they are scrapping. Indiana is fighting to stay on the right side of the Eastern Conference playoff hunt, and the Pacers just can’t get healthy and stay that way this year. Warren never played a minute all year, which means Indiana never got to see its presumed starting five this season.
LeVert is finally healthy now and it’s great to see him back on the basketball court, but he hasn’t really found his shooting touch yet in Indiana. LeVert is under 52% True Shooting with the Pacers and under 30% behind the arc, and it feels like he’s still trying to figure out his role with Indiana as he shares the ball with more options than he typically played with in past Brooklyn seasons.
Malcolm Brogdon leads the Pacers in scoring this season at 21.2 points per game, but it feels like he’s playing in an outsized role. Brogdon’s 3-point percentage has finally ticked back above 40%, but too often it feels like this offense comes down to Brogdon forcing up a tough shot at the end of a shot clock or game.
Sabonis is the hub of the offense with 19.8 points, 11.5 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game, and he’ll continue to be even more central with Turner out, no pun intended. Sabonis will start at center with Edmond Sumner has been starting in Turner’s place while Indiana plays smaller.
The Pacers have been a poor rebounding team this season, and that is only exacerbated with Turner out. The relative strength of this team has been its defense, and it should come as no real surprise to find out Indiana has been far worse on defense with Turner out. The Pacers have won their last three without Turner, but they lost their first three Turner-less games by a total of 72 points, including one against these Clippers.
One real advantage Indiana has over its opponents has been in the turnover battle. The Pacers don’t turn it over often, and they rank fourth in the NBA in steals and first in blocks per game.
But who leads the team in forcing turnovers? Why, Turner of course. Indiana’s offense is pretty average, and they’re losing possessions on the glass, so winning that turnover battle was a key edge.
The Pacers allow 112.0 PPG with Turner in the lineup. They’ve given up 126.8 points per game in six games without him, with at least 124 points allowed in five of the six.
It’s one thing to give up that many points to the Clippers, Bucks, and Mavericks, but it’s another thing entirely to allow 125 to the Grizzlies and 137 to the Timberwolves.
Turner’s absence is the key angle here.
Our Matt Moore has Turner second on his Defensive Player of the Year ballot behind Ben Simmons and ahead of Rudy Gobert thus far, and it’s easy to see why when you consider how poorly the Pacers have played without Turner.
Five of six Pacers games without Turner have gone over the total this season, and by an absurd average of more than 18 points per game, per Killer Sports. The one under missed by just half a point too, so Turner-less overs could be 6-0 if you got the line at the right number. Four of those five overs covered by at least 16 points.
The Pacers’ defense simply isn’t the same without Turner, and it feels like the books aren’t giving his absence enough credit. So what do you get when you take a depleted defense and put them up against the No. 1 offense in the league?
The over has smashed in games without Turner this season, so why mess with what’s working? Grab the over here and play to 230.
Pick: Over 229