The NBA Playoffs will resume with a trio of crucial Game 3s tonight — Thursday, April 23.
Our staff of betting experts dug into the latest NBA odds and identified best bets for all three of today's matchups — including picks for Knicks vs. Hawks, Cavaliers vs. Raptors, and Nuggets vs. Timberwolves.
Continue below for our NBA best bets, picks and predictions for Thursday's playoff games.
NBA Picks, Predictions for Thursday, April 23
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 9:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Knicks vs. Hawks Prop Bet
I’m going right back to the well with Josh Hart Over 12.5 Rebounds & Assists in Game 3 tonight. The dude is simply filling up the stat sheet—and honestly, I have no idea why the books haven’t adjusted this number yet.
Hart put up 19 RA in Game 2 (13 rebounds, 6 assists) and another 19 RA in Game 1 — and this isn't some fluky trend. He’s had 19 rebounding chances in both games so far—trailing only Nikola Jokic for the most in the entire postseason. He tracks down long boards, and the playmaking is there, too; he cashed recorded assists on 10 potentials in the last outing.
Hart is going to continue to play massive minutes because the Knicks' bench is currently a disaster. Jordan Clarkson, Landry Shamet, Jose Alvarado, and Deuce McBride combined for just seven points in 43 minutes last game. They can’t afford to put some of those guys on the floor for long stretches, especially now that the series is shifting to Atlanta.
If the Knicks' bench can't produce and Mitchell Robinson is a -10 in limited minutes, New York is going to ride Hart until the wheels fall off. In 30 playoff games with the Knicks where he’s played at least 25 minutes, he is a production machine. Hart has recorded at least 15 RA in 16 of those 30 games—that’s a 53% hit rate—yet we’re getting +215 for 15+ RA.
Let's take it even further: 18+ RA is +550 and 20+ RA is +1200. He’s hit 20 RA in 30% of his Knicks playoff starts. The market is implying roughly an 8% implied probability at +1200. So, in addition to the 12.5 baseline, I'm also riding the escalator here. The math is just broken. Josh Hart, do the thing.
Pick: Josh Hart Over 12.5 Rebounds & Assists (-120) | 15+ (+215) | 18+ (+550) | 20+ (+1200)
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Cavaliers vs. Raptors Moneyline Pick
By Matt Moore
I’m taking the Raptors moneyline at +130 tonight, mostly because I’ve already bet them in Games 1 and 2—and apparently, this is just the specific circle of hell I’ve chosen to live in. I’m trapped. I spent my week watching Brandon Ingram suck the life out of games after whining and complaining about his touches—and yet here I am, right back at the window ready to bet on Toronto.
The trends for 5-seeds down 0-2 in Game 3 aren't exactly encouraging. Usually, the adjustment is even harsher because the power rating differential just looks massive after you get killed twice on the road.
But, there are some promising signs. Game 2 was a total defensive grind—I gave out the under in the Action Network app—and I actually think the Raptors are finding real solutions on that end of the floor to slow Cleveland down.
The issue, as always, is that they eventually need to put the ball in the basket. To do that, they need Immanuel Quickley—badly. He has to be the engine for Toronto. On the bright side, RJ Barrett continues to validate me. He was great in Game 2: 22 points, nine rebounds, and five assists with four offensive boards. That is pure RJ Barrett basketball—attacking the rim and winning the battle in the paint.
If the Raptors can lean into that physicality and Quickley finally provides the backcourt spark they’ve been missing, I like Toronto to hold serve at home.
Pick: Raptors Moneyline (+130)
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Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Spread Prediction
Look, Denver blew Game 2. We talked about it—they were up 19 in the second quarter and seemingly had the series on lock until a catastrophic six-minute stretch where the Wolves scored on 10 straight possessions. But even with the series tied 1-1, we have two games of data showing that the Nuggets have been the clearly better team for all but about 10 minutes of this series. That matters.
Jokic is simply too good to get dominated by Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle twice in a row. He was surprisingly passive in Game 2, but I expect him to come out and absolutely cook, especially in those non-Gobert minutes.
This is a classic "championship mentality" spot. Denver should feel embarrassed after that Game 2 collapse, and I expect them to respond accordingly.
The extra day of rest is also huge. Jamal Murray played 43 minutes in Game 2 and Jokic played 40. When you’re running a tight 6.5-man rotation like Denver, those minutes are heavy. They went for the kill and missed, but the two days off allow them to reset.
Plus, there is a killer trend here: road favorites in the playoffs coming off a loss of more than three points are 23-9-1 ATS. That is a 72% cover rate, with those teams covering by an average of 6.5 points per game.
I’m trusting the better team to bounce back and reclaim control. Give me the Nuggets in Game 3 tonight.
Pick: Nuggets -1.5 (-115)
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