The NBA regular season is back in action with an excellent 10-game slate this Monday, and I've locked in a total of four picks spanning two of tonight's contests — including bets for Spurs vs. Heat and Rockets vs. Bulls.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, picks and expert bets for Monday, March 23.
NBA Picks, Predictions for Monday, March 23
  |   |
Spurs vs. Heat Spread & Total Predictions
Heat +5
The Miami Heat are taking a beating this week, not just by virtue of the injuries they've dealt with to Norman Powell and Jaime Jaquez, but in heartbreaking losses to the Lakers and Rockets that have put them back into fear of the play-in.
The Spurs continue to ride high, finding ways to win every night in what has been a charmed season.
Can the Spurs keep it going against a reeling Heat team? Will the Heat get back the reinforcements they need for a badly needed win against Victor Wembanyama and friends?
Stephon Castle and Devin Vassell are questionable for San Antonio; Powell is questionable for Miami (upgraded), and Jaquez is probable, along with Andrew Wiggins. Both guys missed the Rockets game for personal reasons.
I’m going to spoil this for you and let you know the Under is my favorite play here by a wide margin. But I do think there’s value on Miami to cover the spread as well.
The market power ratings' line for this game is Heat +4.6 via Inpredictable.com. I make it 8.4 — but if Powell plays (and Castle remains out), then I sneak under this line.
The Heat are 7-2 ATS this season as home 'dogs, while the Spurs are 10-11 as road favorites.
The market has been a little ahead of where the Spurs are at this season in this spot, and Miami continues to be masters at finding ways to make bad spots competitive with Erik Spoelstra.
Other notes:
Elite "Bounce-Back" Team: The Heat are incredibly profitable after a loss, covering the spread at a 68.8% rate (22-10-0 ATS) and beating the market expectation by an average of 3.0 points.
Strong on Equal Footing: In matchups where both teams have an equal amount of rest, Miami maintains a stellar 64.9% ATS win rate (24-13-0 ATS).
Speed Freaks: Miami has a significant edge in transition here, scoring more efficiently; the trick is the Spurs force you into halfcourt more often.
Under 240.5
So, as a byproduct of that, if the Spurs deny transition chances for Miami (and halfcourt defense is Miami’s strength), it makes sense to look for an Under.
The Spurs will look to push pace with De’Aaron Fox, but Miami is top-10 in lowest opponent transition possession rate.
Basically, these two teams will drag one another into the mud, which also supports the Heat's case with fewer possessions despite their blistering pace.
Slower game means fewer points.
This number is based on Miami’s pace, but the Heat are built to attack weak defenses, while San Antonio is not.
I project this total at 231, and like it anywhere north of 235.
Pick: Heat +5, Under 240.5
| |
Rockets vs. Bulls Spread & Prop Picks
Bulls +8.5
The Rockets are coming off a thriller in South Beach. The Bulls are just kind of here.
Can Houston start to build some good vibes for the first time this season?
Jaden Ivey, Isaac Okoro, Anfernee Simons, Jalen Smith, and Guerschon Yabusele are all questionable for the Bulls tonight.
This is a tremendous rest spot advantage for the Bulls.
The Rockets are coming off a thrilling win in Miami where they likely stayed overnight, now playing their 3rd game in the last four nights against a Bulls team that has been off for several days.
- Home 'dogs on 3+ days of rest are 50-32-3 ATS (60%) since 2018.
- Billy Donovan is 26-19 ATS with rest advantage since 2021.
- Teams are 14-22 ATS after playing in Miami this season, and 5-8 ATS after winning in Miami.
- Chicago has covered the spread in seven of its last 10 games.
Houston just doesn’t have as strong of a blowout factor as you would expect.
The Rockets only have 20 double-digit wins, which is currently the fewest of any Western Conference playoff team.
I make the spread for this game Bulls +3.8 given the rest and travel spot, even with all the injuries.
So, I’ll back the trends with the Bulls here. God, help me.
Reed Sheppard Over 20.5 Points & Assists
I don’t show much value on the total, but I do like Reed Sheppard to go over his points & assists line.
Sheppard has been moved into the Rockets' starting lineup, and it’s honestly not just about those minutes; it also bodes well for how the rotation is staggered and should give him more opportunities to be a playmaker with the ball in his hands.
I lean slightly toward the Over regarding the total — but mainly because I think Sheppard has a monster game.
Pick: Bulls +8.5, Reed Sheppard Over 20.5 Points & Assists
| |
