The NBA Playoffs resume with a full slate of Game 1s today — Sunday, April 19. Our basketball betting expert Brandon Anderson is targeting two games on today's slate: 76ers vs. Celtics & Trail Blazers vs. Spurs.
Continue below for our NBA picks and predictions for Sunday's playoff games.
NBA Picks, Predictions for Sunday, April 19
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76ers vs. Celtics
Jayson Tatum Over 9.5 Rebounds
Look, I’m kind of obsessed with rebounding edges, and this is a total mismatch. Philly is league-average on the glass at best, and that’s with Joel Embiid. Now that Embiid is officially out for Game 1, the paint is wide open for the taking.
Boston is a top-five defensive rebounding unit, and Tatum has evolved. Post-Achilles injury, he’s aging up positionally���sticking closer to the rim and anchoring a smaller frontcourt missing Horford and Porzingis. Over his final 13 games, he averaged 10.8 boards, clearing double digits in 69% of those contests.
Historically, Tatum is a postseason glass-eater, averaging 10.2 rebounds over his last two playoff runs. Last year, he snagged 14+ boards in half his games. At plus-money, this is a massive pricing error. I’m also sprinkling on the 12+ (+288) and 14+ (+700) escalators.
Pick: Jayson Tatum Over 9.5 Rebounds (+105)
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Trail Blazers vs. Spurs
Spurs First Quarter Spread -3.5
The statistical mismatch here is just too loud to ignore: the Spurs rank second in the league with a +14.7 first-quarter Net Rating, while the Blazers sit 21st at -4. That’s a staggering 19-point swing in the opening frame alone.
Victor Wembanyama plays the bulk of the first quarter, and I expect him to overwhelm a Portland team that’s making its playoff debut on the road. This arena hasn't hosted a postseason game in 2,549 days—not since the 2019 Nuggets series—so the crowd is going to be electric.
San Antonio has already racked up 18 double-digit first-quarter wins this season, while the Blazers have dropped the opening frame by double digits 14 times. I’m playing the -3.5, but I’m also riding the escalator for Spurs -9.5 (+375). Let’s let Wemby set the tone early.
Stephon Castle Over 6.5 Assists
Honestly, this number is just an assist or two too low, and I expect it to climb before tipoff.
If you’ve been following the Spurs down the stretch, you’ve seen Castle’s playmaking absolutely explode. Since the start of February, he’s been a different player, averaging 7.9 assists per game despite playing only 28 minutes.
So, if he gets "playoff minutes" here, that ceiling goes through the roof.
Over his last 18 games, the surge is even more dramatic: he’s averaging 9.1 assists and has cleared the 8-assist mark in 14 of those 18 contests. That’s nearly an 80% hit rate on a number significantly higher than what we're being asked to lay today.
I’m betting some "Every Game" series-long props, too. We grabbed Castle to record 6+ assists in every game of this series at 20-to-1 this morning, and it’s already plummeted to 4-to-1.
This is going to be a fast, high-possession series against a Blazers team that struggles to defend the point. If the Spurs come out swinging like I expect, Castle is going to be the one orchestrating the avalanche.
Pick: Spurs First Quarter Spread -3.5 (-110), Stephon Castle Over 6.5 Assists (-114)
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