The NBA Playoffs officially begin with a full slate of Game 1s today — Saturday, April 18. Our basketball betting expert Brandon Anderson is targeting two games on today's slate: Hawks vs. Knicks & Rockets vs. Lakers.
Continue below for our NBA picks and predictions for Saturday's playoff games.
NBA Picks, Predictions for Saturday, April 18
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Hawks vs. Knicks
If you’ve been following our series previews all week, this angle should sound familiar.
For Game 1, I am looking at the Knicks first half spread at -2.5. While some models might be holding onto some Hawks' optimism, I’m leaning into the situational reality of Madison Square Garden.
We aren’t dealing with two inexperienced teams here; we have a seasoned Knicks squad playing in front of a home crowd that has been waiting for this moment. I expect that arena to be absolutely rocking, which typically translates to a fast start for the home team.
The data supports this "hot start" theory. The Knicks finished the season with the #1 Net Rating in home first halves at +12.9. That is a massive number.
If you believe in the Knicks winning this series, you almost have to like them in this specific spot where their statistical edge is most pronounced.
Conversely, the Hawks are an inexperienced group entering a hostile road environment for the first time on this stage. I expect them to be on their heels early while Knicks fans are already looking up tickets for second-round games at halftime.
Because I trust the trend, I’m playing the escalator here. The Knicks led by double digits at the half 24 times this season (29%). Meanwhile, the Hawks have trailed by 9 or more on the road at halftime in roughly a quarter of their games.
The First Half Escalator:
Knicks -8.5 1H (+225 at BetMGM)
Knicks -12.5 1H (+450 at Caesars)
Knicks 21+ Margin at Half (+1600 at Caesars)
New York had nine games this season where they led by 20 or more at the break. While I’d prefer a competitive game for the sake of the viewers, from a betting perspective, I’m playing the team I trust in the environment where they excel most.
Pick: Knicks First Half Spread -2.5 (-115)
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Rockets vs. Lakers
For the Rockets-Lakers opener, I’m going back to the well with Amen Thompson Over 25.5 Points and Rebounds (PR). This play is rooted in a concept I call "bludgeon ball."
The Houston Rockets are the #1 offensive rebounding team in the league; their offense isn't necessarily pretty, but they create an immense number of second chances. They averaged a 40% offensive rebound rate in their three matchups against the Lakers this season, and Amen was one of the primary engines of that physical dominance.
Los Angeles simply doesn't have the perimeter athleticism to keep up with Thompson when he’s crashing from the wing.
In their three regular-season meetings, Amen was a monster, averaging 10rebounds per game (including four offensive boards per contest). When you look at his total PR output in those games, he put up 33, 31, and 37.
This current line of 25.5 feels fundamentally too low based on that track record. I’m also playing the escalator here because Amen has shown a massive ceiling in this specific matchup:
30+ PR (+176 at FanDuel): He cleared this in all three games vs. L.A.
35+ PR (+470 at FanDuel): A mark he hit in his most recent outing against them.
40+ PR (+1200 at FanDuel): Just a nibble here, in case he replicates his 26/11 performance.
I’m also adding a small protective hedge on Alperen Şengün 12+ Rebounds (+318 at DraftKings).
While Şengün’s rebounding numbers dipped slightly late in the season, he’s a physical mismatch for the Lakers' frontcourt.
If for some reason the ball isn't bouncing Amen's way, it’s likely because Şengün is vacuuming them up instead.
Both players should benefit from the Rockets' miss-and-follow offensive style, but Thompson’s PR combo is my primary focus for Game 1.
Pick: Amen Thompson Over 25.5 Points & Rebounds (-109)
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