Sunday’s NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: Bet Paul George to Stay Hot in His Return (April 11)
Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Paul George #13 of the LA Clippers.
- Kawhi Leonard may be out for the Clippers tonight, but Paul George is back.
- George was on fire before he sat out on Friday, scoring 30 points in back-to-back games.
- See which player props Malik Smith is targeting, below.
We’re closing out the weekend with 10 NBA games on Sunday and two player props from All-Stars with upside on the evening’s slate.
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Julius Randle, Over 10.5 Rebounds (+110)
|Raptors vs. Knicks||Knicks -3.5|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Raptors hit the road to face the Knicks at Madison Square Garden Sunday night in an Atlantic Division matchup that means a whole lot more to the home team. The Knicks are in the midst of a playoff push, sitting eighth in the East while the Raptors are outside the playoff picture and missing some of their key players.
One of those players is OG Anunoby, who is third on the Raptors with 5.7 rebounds per game behind Pascal Siakam (7.3) and Chris Boucher (6.5).
That matters because the Raptors rank last in the NBA in total rebounds per game (41.2) and will be tasked with keeping Julius Randle — averaging a career-high 10.7 rebounds per game — off the boards. Siakam and Boucher are two tall and lanky players with the wingspan to compete down low, but Randle’s stocky frame and high motor should give him the edge on the boards against both guys.
It also helps that the Knicks and Raptors rank 23rd and 24th respectively in team field goal percentage, according to NBA Advanced Stats — meaning we should expect plenty of misses that need to be cleaned up. Randle has averaged exactly 10 rebounds per game over his past seven games, but we’re essentially betting him to hit his season average and getting plus money.
Our player props tool projects him to get 11.4 boards and rates this bet at an 8. I’d play this to even money.
Paul George, Over 24.5 Points (-110)
|Pistons vs. Clippers||Clippers -11.5|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Los Angeles Clippers host the Detroit Pistons Sunday night at Staples Center, two teams going in completely different directions. Kawhi Leonard has been ruled out for this game for rest, but Paul George will return to the lineup after sitting the Clippers’ previous game for rest.
George, you may remember, was on fire before he sat out Friday, posting back-to-back 30-point games and shooting 13-of-18 from behind the arc in those two games.
When it comes to 3-point shooting, George has been scorching all season — he’s shooting 44.1% on 7.5 3s per games. The Pistons, who rank 20th in Opponent 3-point percentage, will have a long night trying to defend George and the rest of the Clippers’ shooters.
With Leonard out tonight, we can expect to see a nice boost for George in terms of Usage, where he sees a +5.1% bump when Leonard isn’t on the floor. Lastly, Jerami Grant is questionable after missing the past two Pistons games, which would deprive them of the best defender for George.
Our props tool is expecting a high-scoring performance for George as well here, with a 28.2 points projections in this game. At 24.5, I like the over.