NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: Value on De’Anthony Melton and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Monday, November 1)
Sam Forencich/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 of the Oklahoma City.
It’s Monday night, but we’re not talking about football here, just player props.
Today’s slate features nine games, but we’re eyeing two do-it-all guards with our picks and using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks.
Read below for the two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
De’Anthony Melton, Over 4.5 Rebounds (+125)
|Nuggets vs. Grizzlies||Nuggets -1|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
De’Anthony Melton is a Jack-of-all-trades for the Grizzlies who can contribute in so many areas. He was tied with Ja Morant as the team’s leading scorer against the Miami Heat (in fairness it was a lopsided loss) and he was the Grizzlies’ second-leading scorer in their game against the Los Angeles Clippers (a six-point win).
He has also been really good on the boards with two games pulling down seven rebounds and one with six. He plays the second-most minutes on the Grizzlies through six games and rebounds well for an undersized guard. This season he’s averaging 5.0 rebounds per game and somehow this prop has him listed at 4.5 with the under at -150 and the over at +125.
The matchup against the Denver Nuggets benefits Melton tonight — they rank 25th in 3-point percentage (31.3%) this season, which means there should be an opportunity for long rebounds. Through six games (#smallsample) Melton is pulling down 2.5 boards per game on shots taken from 19 feet or farther, per NBA Advanced Stats and 2.3 of those boards are uncontested, meaning he’s just in good position to grab an easy ball.
With the Nuggets — particularly Michael Porter Jr. — struggling to hit deep shots, I suspect there will be plenty of misses to clean up and Melton’s odds to reach his season average seem much better than the 44% this line implies. I like the over here.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Over 3.5 Assists (-145)
|Thunder vs. Clippers||Clippers -12.5|
|Time | TV||10:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
It’s going to be a long season for the Thunder and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. A little over a year ago, he was playing in a Game 7 in the playoffs and now he’s the best player on one of the worst teams in the NBA. His talent is unquestionable, but the level of the players around him leaves much to be desired.
That said, his over/under for assists Monday, listed at 3.5 on Caesars, seems off to me. His assist numbers are down this season compared to last (from 5.9 to 3.8), but that’s due in part to the fact that rookie Josh Giddey is the team’s leading assist man at 5.7 per game to start the season.
But SGA leads the Thunder in potential assists (10.3) and his usage in this game will be significantly higher with Lu Dort ruled out tonight due to a shoulder injury — his usage goes up 9.1 percentage points with Dort off the floor this season.
Gilgeous-Alexander assist totals have varied this season — three games with two each and three games with four, five and eight — but he’ll have more opportunity to have one of those good games with the ball in his hands more tonight.
I like him to clear the 3.5, but wouldn’t go higher than the -145 odds at Caesars.
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