NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: Derrick White, Brandon Ingram Have Big Nights In Store (December 26)
Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images. Pictured: Brandon Ingram
After a great Christmas Day slate, we still have plenty more basketball to play and that begins tonight.
The COVID protocols continue to spread like crazy, so make sure to keep an eye on the news as I assume more players will get ruled out later in the day. However, there are spots we can take advantage of now.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Kyle Kuzma, Over 6.5 Rebounds (-145)
|Wizards vs. 76ers||76ers -3.5|
|Time | TV||6 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Washington Wizards are slowly trying to get back to how they played back in November. They have won back-to-back games after they had previously lost seven of their last eight games with their only win coming in overtime against the Detroit Pistons.
Star Bradley Beal entered the COVID protocol and will be out for their game tonight. Without Beal in the lineup, the Wizards will turn to Kyle Kuzma and Spencer Dinwiddie for most of their production. In four games without Beal this season, Kuzma has averaged 17.3 points per game, 9.8 rebounds per game and has a 23.8% usage rate.
The main piece I want to target is Kuzma’s rebounding numbers. Averaging 9.8 rebounds per game is quite a big jump from his 7.6 rebounds per game when Beal is in the lineup. Regardless, both numbers are well above the prop we have on the table tonight. On the season, Kuzma is averaging 7.9 rebounds per game while getting over this 6.5 rebounds prop in 17 of 30 games.
Kuzma has recently struggled on the boards. He has fewer than seven rebounds in seven of his last 10 games, but Beal being out negates most of the concerns of Kuzma’s recent form. With Beal out of the lineup in their last game, Kuzma had 10 rebounds.
Kuzma is also in a very advantageous rebounding spot tonight. The Philadelphia 76ers have a 47.6% Rebounding Percentage, which is the second-worst in the league. The 76ers continue to play at the slowest pace in the league which is why this game total is a slate-low 206 points.
The slow pace isn’t ideal for rebounding opportunities, but I still think Kuzma gets well over 6.5 rebounds tonight. Our model has Kuzma projected to get 8.1, so I would feel very comfortable taking this prop up to 7.5 rebounds.
Derrick White, Over 26.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-110)
|Spurs vs. Pistons||Spurs -11.5|
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
After a four-game road trip where they went 3-1, the San Antonio Spurs return home to welcome the short-handed Detroit Pistons. The Pistons are 5-26 this season and are now playing with a very limited roster due to the COVID protocols. The Spurs are the heaviest favorite on the slate at 11.5 points.
Speaking of the COVID protocols, that is the thesis of this Derrick White prop. The Spurs will be without Dejounte Murray, who was placed in the protocol this morning.
Murray has yet to miss a game this season, so we need to look at our On/Off tool on FantasyLabs to see what White has done with Murray off the floor. With Murray off the floor this season, White has played the second-most minutes on the Spurs with 277 and has a +2.5% usage rate increase. He will be the main piece in the Spurs’ offense tonight in an incredible matchup.
The Pistons have allowed opponents to shoot 47.5% from the field, which is the highest field goal percentage allowed in the league. They also allow 109.5 points per game and rank 22nd in Defensive Rating this season.
If the Pistons somehow keep this game competitive, White is going to have a ton of opportunities to destroy this over prop. He has had over 26.5 points, rebounds, and assists in six out of his last nine games. All of those were with Murray in the lineup. I expect this prop to move a little bit, and I would take this prop up to 27.5.
Brandon Ingram, Over 27.5 Points (-115)
|Thunder vs. Pelicans||Pelicans -1|
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
This matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and New Orleans Pelicans features two of the worst teams in the Western Conference. The Pelicans are trying to make their way back up the standings as they have won four straight games.
A big part of the Pelicans’ recent success has been the play of Brandon Ingram. He has been on an absolute tear recently. In his last 11 games, Ingram is averaging a ridiculous 27.6 points per game while having a 29.8% usage rate. He has attempted 20 or more field goals in six of his last nine games.
The Pelicans will need to rely on Ingram even more as Jonas Valanciunas and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are both out tonight. Both were out last game and Ingram flourished, scoring 31 points while shooting 12-of-23 from the field with a 34.5% usage rate. The sample size is small, but that was the first game Valanciunas has missed all season and Ingram showed out in a big way.
This game features the closest spread on the slate with the Pelicans being favored by a point on the road. The Thunder are a middle-of-the-road defense this season. They rank 14th in Defensive Rating and have given up 107.5 points per game.
Ingram is the focal point of the Pelicans’ offense that has an implied total of 105.75 points tonight. He will get up as many field goal attempts as he can handle as the Pelicans look to make it five-straight victories. I would take this Ingram prop up to 28.5 points.
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