Sunday NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Rudy Gobert vs. Nikola Jokic and More (August 23)
Ashley Landi-Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Rudy Gobert and Nikola Jokic.
- Brandon Anderson uses the FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool to find value on a trio of bets for Sunday's NBA Playoffs slate.
- Check out his full betting preview with odds and picks below, including why he's betting on big performances for Nikola Jokic and Rudy Gobert.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll, especially in the NBA postseason. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
|Win-Loss (Win Pct)|
|Bet Quality of 10||775-572 (57%)|
|Bet Quality of 9||942-776 (54%)|
|Bet Quality of 8||1432-1263 (52%)|
Today’s player props come from two of the slate’s four games:
- Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC
- Denver Nuggets vs. Utah Jazz at 9:00 p.m. ET on TNT
NBA Player Prop Bets
Denver Nuggets, Nikola Jokic
The Prop: Over 7.5 assists (-102) [BET NOW]
Nikola Jokic is the best player in the Denver-Utah series, but he has not been the best player on the court so far. Jokic simply isn’t making enough of an impact on offense, and he’s not exactly out there for his defense. He also got roasted on the boards by Rudy Gobert in Game 3 — we’ll get back to that shortly.
Utah has turned Jokic into a scorer, daring him to shoot and taking away his passing lanes, and the Nuggets are still short Gary Harris and Will Barton, so Jokic’s teammates simply haven’t done enough. Jokic hasn’t been good enough, but he’s still been the best Nugget, and he’s going to have to try to get his teammates involved more. He has only three, six, and six assists in three playoff games, making this Over-7.5 look very tricky.
But Jokic averaged 7.0 assists during the season at 32 minutes per game, and he also increased to 8.4 APG last playoffs. Denver needs to find a way to get Michael Porter Jr. and other Nuggets going, and that way is Jokic. We are projecting him at 36.3 minutes and 8.7 assists. I’ll play this over lightly, only to about -120.
Utah Jazz, Rudy Gobert
The Prop: Over 11.5 rebounds (-115) [BET NOW]
Remember how Jokic was dominated on the boards? Yeah, that was by Rudy Gobert, who posted his best rebounding season ever at 13.5 boards per game. Then, the playoffs started, and Gobert had only seven boards in each of his first two games. This number then went way down in Game 3.
But rebounds are higher variance, and Gobert dominated the boards with 14 rebounds in Game 3, going well over his total. And he did that in his fewest minutes of the series (32) in a blowout Utah win. Gobert was aggressive in Game 3 with 24 points and 14 rebounds, both his highest in the series.
Gobert’s minutes should bounce back in Game 4 in what should be a closer game, and he will continue to attack the glass. We’re projecting him at 13.7 rebounds — about in line with his season number — and we’ve got some margin for error again here. I’ll bet Gobert today up to -140.
Los Angeles Clippers, Marcus Morris
The Prop: Over 12.5 points (-120) [BET NOW]
If you’ve been following our props this week, you already know why we’re in on Marcus Morris. The Clippers continue to lack their usual depth and versatility. Patrick Beverley may not play again. Reggie Jackson and Landry Shamet aren’t cutting the mustard. Montrezl Harrell is still working his way back into shape. Lou Williams doesn’t play any defense.
The Clippers still have Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, of course, but Marcus Morris has quickly become one of the few two-way options the team feels comfortable with on both ends of the court. He’s played at least 32 minutes in all three playoff games, and we’re projecting him at 33.6 today. In those three games, Morris has scored 19, 14, and 14.
Morris is more important to the Clippers defensively, and that’s why he’s out there. But on offense, if you’ve ever watched Morris play, you know there are some possessions when he just goes, “My turn!” and puts a shot up. If he’s out there for 32 minutes again, he will get his points. At 12.5, we’ll play this over to -150, and I’d be even more excited if we get better odds at a higher number.