Prop bets can be a great way to get action on a game. Bookmakers don’t have to worry about taking a lot of action on them, so there isn’t as great an incentive to post a competitive line.
As a result, props can be some of the most exploitable bets on the board.
These props can become downright unfair when you combine them with the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool.
Sunday’s best props focus on three of the slate’s six games:
- Charlotte Hornets at Atlanta Hawks: 6 p.m. ET
- New York Knicks at Memphis Grizzlies: 6 p.m. ET
- Utah Jazz at Sacramento Kings: 8 p.m. ET
Let’s dive right in.
Hornets PG Kemba Walker
The Pick: Over 26.5 points (-143)
Walker is off to the best start of his NBA career, averaging 28.6 points per game. He ranks seventh in the NBA with a usage rate of 32.2%, while his average of 10 3-point attempts per game ranks first.
He’s in an elite spot today against the Hawks, who are playing at the fastest pace in the league, but rank just 25th in defensive efficiency.
He also has an elite individual matchup against Trae Young, who ranks dead last among 90 qualified point guards in terms of Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM). The Hornets are implied for 117.0 points, which is the top mark on today’s slate.
Walker has some explosive scoring games this season and is set up for another one today. I’d play this prop up to -160 and would play the over at 27.0 as well.
Knicks PF Noah Vonleh
The Pick: Over 8.5 rebounds (-150)
The Knicks have done a lot of experimenting with their rotation this season, but Vonleh seems pretty entrenched in his role at the moment.
He has played at least 30.5 minutes in each of his past four games, including 36 in his most recent contest. He also has pulled down at least nine rebounds in each of those games and has averaged 12.3 rebounds per 36 minutes this season, so this line seems exploitable.
Vonleh has a tough matchup against the Grizzlies, who rank last in pace this season, but I still like the over at 8.5. I'd be wary of taking this above -150.
Kings PF Marvin Bagley
The Pick: Over 12.5 points (-114)
Bagley hasn’t played much after the Kings drafted him second overall, averaging just 23.6 minutes per game. That said, his minutes have ticked up recently, and he’s coming off a season-high 33.8 minutes in his most recent contest.
This prop seems low if he’s going to see that much playing time moving forward: He’s averaged 18.9 points per 36 minutes this season and has scored at least 15 points in three of his past four games.
He has an interesting matchup vs. the Jazz, who have the reputation of being a good defensive team, but have struggled on that end of the court this season.
It makes sense for the Kings to start giving Bagley more minutes, so I think there’s some value with this line. I’d play the over up to -160 and would take it at 13.0 as well.
