Prop bets can be a great way to get action on a game. Bookmakers don’t have to worry about taking a lot of action on them, so there isn’t as great an incentive to post a competitive line.
As a result, props can be some of the most exploitable bets on the board.
These props can become downright unfair when you combine them with the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool.
Saturday’s best props focus on three games:
- Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets: 7 p.m. ET
- Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans: 7 p.m. ET
- Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks: 8:30 p.m. ET
Let’s dive right in.
Hornets G Jeremy Lamb
The Pick: Over 4.5 rebounds (-120)
The Hornets will be without Michael Kidd-Gilchrist on Saturday, which should open up a few additional minutes for Lamb.
Lamb is one of the best rebounding guards in the league, averaging 6.6 boards per 36 minutes, and he's currently projected for 28 minutes. He has a difficult matchup against the 76ers who rank 10th in team rebound rate, but they also play at one of the faster paces in the league. That should result in a few additional rebound opportunities at a minimum.
I like to bet the over on Lamb’s rebound prop whenever he’s projected to see a significant amount of playing time, and Saturday is no exception. I’d play the over up to -160 at the current number and up to 5.0 as well.
Nuggets G Jamal Murray
The Pick: Over 17.5 points (-130)
Murray was benched in his last game for a "minor violation" of team rules but is fully expected to rejoin the starting lineup on Saturday.
Murray will be playing in one of the largest pace-up spots of the day against the Pelicans. The Nuggets are currently implied for 113.25 points, which represents a slight increase when compared to their season average (111.1). The Pelicans have also allowed the second-most points to opposing point guards this season.
Murray can score the basketball with the best of 'em, so it makes sense to target him in a pace-up game. That said, I wouldn't play this line at much higher than -130.
Warriors F Kevin Durant
The Pick: Over seven assists (+110)
Durant should have the opportunity to dominant the basketball for the Warriors with both Stephen Curry and Draymond Green out with injuries.
While that will obviously lead to more scoring opportunities, it should lead to more playmaking opportunities as well: Durant increased his assist rate by 11.7% with Curry and Draymond off the floor this season. The result is an average of 8.5 assists per 36 minutes, which makes getting better than even money on this prop pretty tasty.
I love this line where it currently sits, but would also be willing to play it up to -130.
