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Raybon’s Favorite NBA Props for Thursday: Will Willie Cauley-Stein Score 11 Points?


Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sacramento Kings center Willie Cauley-Stein (00)

  • Chris Raybon breaks down his favorite NBA player props for Thursday night.
  • Props include Kings C Willie Cauley-Stein's points and PF Marvin Bagley's rebounds.

The two NBA player props highlighted below are from the following game:

  • Cleveland Cavaliers at Sacramento Kings: 10 p.m. ET

As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 5:15 p.m. ET. View live odds here.

Kings C Willie Cauley-Stein

THE PICK: Over 10 Points (+110)

Cauley-Stein’s recent numbers look ugly because he’s played the Rockets twice over his past three games — a team he’s averaging only 3.5 points in 21.2 minutes per game against.

WCS should be able to get back on track against a Cavs team that’s allowing the third-highest field goal percentage to opposing centers over the past 30 days (60.6%, per Hashtag Basketball).

For the season, he’s averaging 12.9 points per game at home, and he’s scored 11 or more in 24-of-39 (61.5%) home games, so this prop should have value up to -160.

At over 10 (+110), it’s rated a 10 in Bet Quality by our player props tool, and bets rated as such have crushed to the tune of a 58%/40%/2% win/loss/push rate this season.

Kings PF Marvin Bagley

THE PICK: Under 9.5 Rebounds (-126)

Bagley has stepped up his play down the stretch, but this prop is still aggressive. Since returning from a knee injury on March 14, Bagley is averaging 8.2 rebounds per game.

The Kings haven’t been playing at as much of a breakneck pace as they were earlier in the season, ranking 18th in the league (98.94, per NBA Stats), and the Cavs (98.16) are 20th over that span.

Bagley has grabbed double-digit boards in just four of his past 11 games (36.4%), failing to come away with nine in 6-of-11 (54.5%), so this should have value down to under 8.5 at -120.

I usually throw a few more prop picks in the Action Network App throughout the night as I do more research and lineup news trickles in, so be sure to follow me there, as well.

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