Highlighted below is an NBA player prop from each of the two playoff games Tuesday night:
- Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks: 8 p.m. ET on TNT
- Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors: 10:30 p.m. ET on TNT
As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 5 p.m. ET. View live odds here.
Celtics F Marcus Morris
THE PICK: Over 5.5 Rebounds (-135)
Morris came off the bench in Boston's first-round sweep of Indiana, but coach Brad Stevens has inserted Morris back into the starting lineup to better match up with Milwaukee's length.
The lone Morris brother still alive in the playoffs averaged 6.1 rebounds in 27.0 minutes per game during the regular season and has pulled down seven or more in four of Boston's five postseason games so far despite only starting one. And in the 98 minutes that the Celtics' current starting configuration has played together this season, Morris is the leader in rebounding percentage (12.8%), according to our NBA On/Off tool.
In 80 combined regular-season and playoff games, he's finished with at least six rebounds 65% of the time, with six being the most likely outcome (23%). In games that he didn't land on exactly six, he grabbed seven or more 56% of the time and five or fewer 44% of the time. Given those rates, the over should have value up to a line of 6 (-125).
Warriors F Andre Iguodala
THE PICK: Over 4.5 Rebounds (+100)
Different game, same situation.
After spending his team's first-round series against the Clippers coming off the bench, Iggy was inserted into the starting lineup by Steve Kerr ahead of Game 1 in order for the Warriors to better match up with James Harden. While Iguodala averaged just 3.9 rebounds per game during the regular season, he was playing only 23.2 minutes per game then; in Game 1 against Houston, he played 34. Kerr stated he wants to match Iggy's minutes with Harden and Chris Paul, so the increased workload should continue.
Our NBA Player Models have him projected for 5.7 rebounds in 33.7 minutes, and our props tool rates this prop as a perfect 10 in Bet Quality with a 29% cushion between projected and implied total.
I usually throw a few more prop picks in the Action Network App throughout the night as I do more research and lineup news trickles in, so be sure to follow me on there if you aren't already.
