Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Friday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from four of the slate’s 11 games:
- Toronto Raptors at New Orleans Pelicans: 8 p.m. ET
- Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves: 8 p.m. ET
- New York Knicks at Dallas Mavericks: 8:30 p.m. ET
- Brooklyn Nets at Portland Trail Blazers: 10 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Pelicans F Brandon Ingram
THE PICK: Over 3.5 assists (-125) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Ingram has been fantastic in his first season with the Pelicans. He’s currently on pace to average career-highs in virtually every category across the board.
His scoring numbers are probably due for a bit of regression — he’s shooting 55.2% from the field and 48.6% from 3-point range — but there’s no reason he can't continue to facilitate at an improved level. He’s averaged 4.3 assists per game this season, and he’s handed out at least four assists in five of six games in which he’s played at least 31 minutes. Ingram has also averaged 6.0 potential assists per game, per NBA.com.
I think this prop is pretty underpriced considering what we’ve seen from Ingram this season. I’d play the over up to -150.
Warriors G Jordan Poole
THE PICK: Under 12.5 points (+100) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Poole has had some moments for the Warriors this season, but his role figures to diminish moving forward. D’Angelo Russell is expected to be back in the lineup today, and he should dominate the basketball when he’s on the court. He’s posted a usage rate of 35.2% with Steph Curry and Draymond Green off the court this season.
Poole should still have a role with the offense, but I’m willing to sell him in this spot. I like this prop at even money but wouldn’t play it above -115.
Knicks G RJ Barrett
THE PICK: Over 4.5 assists (+100) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
The Knicks are still really thin in the backcourt. Dennis Smith Jr. and Elfrid Payton will miss another contest, which should give Barrett increased playmaking opportunities. He posted eight assists in his last contest, and he’s averaged 8.0 potential assists per game. The Mavericks also rank just 20th in defensive efficiency, so the Knicks have increased offensive potential in this matchup.
I’m willing to go back to the well with Barrett given the Knicks’ current backcourt situation. I like the over up to -125.
Nets F Taurean Prince
THE PICK: Over 5.5 rebounds (-130) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Prince has played a surprisingly large role for the Nets this season. He’s averaged 33.9 minutes per game, and he’s played at least 33 minutes in each of his past three games. His role with the team seems pretty solidified, but he could see an even larger workload than usual with DeAndre Jordan out of the lineup.
Jordan’s absence should be particularly beneficial to Prince on the glass. He’s averaged 7.0 rebounds per game this season to begin with — including at least six in five of seven games — and he’s increased his rebound rate from 11.0% to 14.5% with Jordan off the court this season.
This game also figures to feature a ton of possessions. Brooklyn ranks fourth in pace while Portland ranks 10th, and lots of possessions lead to lots of rebound opportunities.
I love Prince in this spot and would be willing to play the over up to -175.
