Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks (Friday, Dec. 6): Eric Paschall Is the New Kyle Kuzma
Photo credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Eric Paschall
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Friday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from two of the slate’s 10 games:
- Golden State Warriors at Chicago Bulls: 8 p.m. ET
- Los Angeles Clippers at Milwaukee Bucks: 8:30 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Warriors F Eric Paschall
THE PICK: Over 5.5 rebounds (-114) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Eric Paschall is the new Kyle Kuzma. Both guys were taken late in the draft. Both produced as rookies, racking up points in a high-usage opportunity. Both play for teams always in the national spotlight, despite being terrible (think early Kuzma era). And all those high minutes and big usage for a bad team mean lots of over-inflated counting numbers.
Paschall is averaging 17.3 points and 5.5 rebounds a game for the season. As a starter, those numbers tick up to 19.9 points and 6.3 rebounds in 34.1 minutes, and Paschall has gone over that minutes total in four of his last five, too. He went over 5.5 rebounds in all of them and in nine of his last 11 games overall.
This is simply a volume play, a la Kuzma. Where there is playing time and usage, there will be numbers. Paschall is worth playing here as high as -135.
Bucks PG Eric Bledsoe
THE PICK: Over 4.5 assists (-125) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
It’s a real shame this Bucks vs. Clippers game isn’t on TV since it could well be a Finals preview. You can’t get much better than Giannis Antetokounmpo matched up against Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Kawhi took Giannis out of the game in the playoffs last year, so it feels like Milwaukee will need help from Bledsoe and other Bucks.
That should put the ball in Bledsoe’s hands more than usual, forcing him to make plays. Bledsoe is already averaging 5.6 assists per game, and he’s gone over 4.5 in 18 of his last 20 games. That’s a pretty astounding success rate for this prop, and that makes it worth riding all the way to -160 if necessary. Our Player Prop tool rates this a 10 out of 10 and also likes Bledsoe’s rebounding and point overs, too, if you like him to have a big all-around game.
Bulls PG Kris Dunn
THE PICK: Under 4.5 assists (-138) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
This is a pretty odd looking line. Kris Dunn has played good defense like usual, but his assists are down quite a bit. Dunn’s assist rate is at 22.4% after being above 30% each of the past two seasons, and he’s averaging just 3.1 dimes a game despite being over four the last two years. Part of that drop in counting numbers is due to a lack of playing time: he’s at 21.1 minutes a game compared to almost 30 the last two years.
That playing time has ticked back up the last three games, but the assists haven’t come around. Dunn has gone over 4.5 assists only four times this season in 22 games. That means the under has hit almost 82% of the time this season, and it should hit again tonight, even against the Warriors. Dunn is worth playing up to -160.