Saturday NBA Player Props (Aug. 15): Our Bets for Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers
Photo by Ashley Landis-Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: CJ McCollum #3 of the Portland Trail Blazers
- The Portland Trail Blazers and Memphis Grizzlies face off at 2:30 p.m. ET in a play-in game to determine the 8-seed in the Western Conference.
- Brandon Anderson highlights his favorite player props to bet in Saturday afternoon's psuedo-NBA Playoffs matchup.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Here’s how those props did this season prior to the shut down:
|FantasyLabs Grade||Win-Loss (Win Pct)|
|Bet Quality of 10||775-572 (57%)|
|Bet Quality of 9||942-776 (54%)|
|Bet Quality of 8||1432-1263 (52%)|
Today’s props come from the slate’s only game:
- Portland Trail Blazers vs. Memphis Grizzlies at 2:30 p.m. ET
NBA Player Prop Bets
Memphis Grizzlies, Brandon Clarke
The Prop: Over 11.5 points (-118), Over 6.5 rebounds (+104)
My biggest worry for the Grizzlies in this matchup is Jonas Valanciunas. Valanciunas was wonderful in the play-in clincher for Memphis, recording a triple-double against Dallas, and he can be physically dominant at times. But he also played only 14 minutes in the bubble opener against Portland, struggling defensively against Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum.
Valanciunas is more of a drop defender and can’t get out to guard those pull-up 3s. Memphis played Jaren Jackson Jr. 43 minutes in that Blazers game and he was huge on both ends, stretching the offense and providing better versatility on defense, but Jackson is out injured now. Anthony Tolliver can provide the spacing but not the defense.
If Memphis is going to hang with Portland, especially defensively, it is going to need a lot of Brandon Clarke. Clarke is the one big man on this team prepared to defend Portland’s guards.
Clarke averaged 22.4 minutes per game this season, but that’s increased to 26.7 MPG in the bubble and almost 28 over the last three games. That’s where we’re projecting him today, and I think he could play even more.
Clarke is a high-energy player who always produces numbers, and this game will feature two worn down teams. His energy on the boards and ability to find easy buckets against a poor defense could be huge for Memphis. Clarke’s per-minute numbers would put him around 15 points and 7.5 rebounds in 28 minutes, right about where we project him. I like Clarke to have a big game and maybe even clear both of those numbers.
Both of these props look good, but the points are the better bet. I love the points over and would play that one up to -150. The rebounds are rated an 8 on our Props tool, but I love that one at +EV and would play it up to -120.
Portland Trail Blazers, Zach Collins
The Prop: Under 6 rebounds (-115)
Zach Collins missed most of the season before finally returning for the bubble games. He played almost 37 minutes in the overtime opener against Memphis, but his minutes are trending down in a big way ever since. Collins played 27 or 28 minutes the next three games, then 25, 23, 20, and 17 in the four games since.
Collins simply isn’t working out for Portland. He isn’t producing in the lineup, and the Blazers have found too much success playing Gary Trent Jr. and Carmelo Anthony together at forward. Collins is a nice rebounder who puts up numbers when he’s out there, but it’s clear Portland doesn’t trust him yet.
We project Collins at 19.4 minutes and only 4.1 rebounds, giving you a lot of margin for error here. We rate this prop a 10 and I’d play it up to -160. I like it even better if that number drops below 6 and gives us better odds.
Portland Trail Blazers, CJ McCollum
The Prop: Under 23 points (-110)
McCollum averaged 22.2 PPG this season, his second highest total ever, but that has dropped to 20.1 in the bubble despite playing almost 41 minutes a game. McCollum’s shooting only 43% on field goals because he simply isn’t finishing well inside the arc.
That is surely in part to the non-displaced back fracture McCollum has been playing through since last Thursday, and he’s clearly not playing at full strength right now. McCollum has gone under 23 points in five of his last seven games, and we project him at 20.8 points. Memphis will surely try to force anyone but Damian Lillard to beat them, but McCollum may not be the answer.
I’d play this one to -130.