NBA Playoff Trends: Can Boston’s Dominance Carry Into the Postseason?

The Boston Celtics have stormed through the league this season at an incredible pace. They have the fifth-best margin of victory (11.34) in NBA history and the highest Offensive Rating in league history (123.2), according to basketball reference. They've been the favorites to win the NBA title all season, so let's talk about the Celtics and the betting favorites entering the playoffs.

The History of Betting Favorites Entering the NBA Playoffs

Dating back to 1976, a total of 48 seasons, 24 of the teams that entered the playoffs as a the favorites went on to win the NBA title — exactly half. The last team to do so was the Golden State Warriors in 2015, 2017 and 2018.

Also, in those 48 seasons, nine teams made it to the NBA Finals but ended up falling just short, which means 33 of the 48 favorites to win it all entering the playoffs made it to the NBA Finals.

As of now, we are on a bit of cold streak for favorites: The 2020 Clippers, 2021 Nets, 2022 Suns and 2023 Bucks all lost in the Conference Finals or earlier the past four seasons.

In that 48-year span since 1976, we’ve never had a three-year drought with no playoff favorite making the finals prior to this stretch — it’s now made it to four straight years.

Will Boston's Dominant Regular Season Translate to the Playoffs

The Celtics had an average point spread of -8.7 PPG this season, the fifth-highest over the past 30 years for any full 82-game season. The other four teams on the list all made the NBA Finals ('96 Bulls, '97 Bulls, '15 Warriors, '16 Warriors).

Celtics are currently -5000 to beat the Heat (+1700) in the first round. That is the largest NBA playoff series price since Bucks vs Magic in Round 1 in 2020 during the Orlando Bubble. Of the 11 playoff series with this big of a favorite, only two went past five games: Warriors vs Clippers in 2019 and Celtics vs Hawks in 2008.

But there's reason for caution around this Celtics team based on their recent history. Over the past three years in the playoffs (since 2021), the Celtics have lost 14 games outright as a favorite in the playoffs (18-14 SU, 16-16 ATS. The 14 losses is over 22% of the losses by any favorite in that span).

In the last 20 years of the playoffs, only six teams have lost six games or more outright as a favorite in a single playoffs. Boston has done it in consecutive years in the playoffs entering this year's campaign.

Bet Labs Systems & Info 

Let's take a look at a few NBA Playoff systems using our Bet Labs database. Click each system for matches, bets and detailed profitability charts.

Time to focus on short rest. Teams playing on two or fewer days of rest entering a Game 1 of either Round 2, Conference Finals or NBA Finals, are just 25-40-1 ATS in the last 20 years.

Early NBA playoff games have leaned towards the under in recent history. Games played before 4 p.m. ET are 59% to the under since 2005, including 45-26-2 since 2018.