The NBA regular season is back in action with an excellent slate of games on Monday night, with a total of nine matchups scheduled for today.
So, I've locked in a total of seven picks for tonight's contests, including bets for Hawks vs Pistons, Mavericks vs Nuggets, and Suns vs Lakers.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, odds and expert bets for Monday, December 1.
NBA Predictions, Odds, Picks, Expert Bets: Monday, December 1
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Cavaliers vs. Pacers
Indiana is getting healthy.
Getting back Andrew Nembhard and Benedict Mathurin makes a huge difference for the Pacers.
Over every team’s last four games, they are the No. 1 defense in the league.
The Cavaliers, meanwhile, are a bit of a mess.
The overall numbers are still great for them, but they are clearly struggling.
- Since 2021, Rick Carlisle and the Pacers are 41-32-1 ATS (56%) with a rest advantage.
- Kenny Atkinson and the Cavs are 7-9 ATS with rest disadvantage so far.
Here’s the shocker: the Pacers, despite how bad they’ve been, are actually 7-3 ATS at home this season.
They are losing, but still beating expectation. That sure sounds like what you’d expect from a Rick Carlisle Pacers team
With the Cavs on a back-to-back, it won’t surprise if they sit a few of the key players, even with their recent struggles.
I’ll back Indiana at anything more than a possession on the spread.
Pick: Pacers +6.5
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Hawks vs. Pistons
This is going to be a fast-paced game; both teams rank top-11 in overall pace.
Now, Detroit is 18th in offensive possession length, and the Hawks are 25th in defensive possession length. So, that could drag it down.
But this is a bad rest spot for the Hawks coming off a double-overtime and now on a back to back.
Under Quin Snyder, when the Hawks are on a rest disadvantage, the over is 37-25 (59%) since 2021.
I project 237.9. So, I’ll bank on a higher-scoring game between two pretty good defenses.
Pick: Over 234
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Bucks vs. Wizards
The Bucks are going to put up a big number here.
The Bucks have been a low total team on the road this season, but their offensive SOS on the road has been difficult (multiple games against top-10 defenses).
The Wizards are… not that.
The Wizards are the No. 1 over team in the league at home. They also play at a breakneck pace (which is bad for them, but nevermind that).
Both teams are top-15 in transition frequency and the Bucks play faster with Giannis.
Expect a monster Giannis game, probably garbage time, and an over based on pace and the Bucks’ efficiency.
Pick: Over 231.5
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Bulls vs. Magic
I grabbed this at 240 when it opened, but I still like it if it falls a little bit.
The Magic offense has been red hot, and that makes it tough to think they won’t score, but Chicago’s offense has dropped off a cliff; 18th in the last four games.
Orlando is still an elite defensive team and better defensively than they are offensively, even now.
For the season, these are two back-half-of-the-league offensive teams in the halfcourt, and Chicago’s transition defense has actually been their strongest performer thus far.
The Bulls are dead last in forcing turnovers, making for fewer easy bucket chances.
The Magic may just blow past this number by putting up 140 on their own, but I’ll take the under.
Pick: Under 240.5
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Mavericks vs. Nuggets
I went round-and-round on this one.
The Nuggets’ defense is dead last since Aaron Gordon went down with injury and the over is 6-3 in their home games.
The Mavericks, on the other hand, are 2nd in under rate this season and are dead last in halfcourt offense.
It’s the very stoppable force against the completely movable object.
With priors, I lean Mavericks. On in-season data, I lean Nuggets.
So instead, I’ll go with a prop.
Max Christie leads the Mavericks with 2.7 corner 3-point attempts per game, making 57 percent of them this season.
The Nuggets are dead last in opponent corner three-point rate, a consequence of their two primary coverages: at-level screen defense by the big and zone.
Quite simply, if you leverage their poor perimeter defense at all and pass with any decency, you’ll create corner threes.
Christie has hit the alternate line of over 2.5 in 67 percent of games this season, and 76% over the 1.5 line.
Pick: Max Christie Over 1.5 Three-Pointers / Over 2.5 Three-Pointers
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Rockets vs. Jazz
This is a weird spot the league has built-in.
Houston is playing a back-to-back, against the same team, in the same city. They started adding more of these “Duplex” spots against the same team in 2021, but rarely on back-to-backs.
Overall, teams are 19-23 ATS on the second game of a back-to-back on the road vs. the same opponent. That number goes to 10-9 when they’re favored, but back down to 6-8 ATS when they won the first game.
Here’s the kicker: teams have played two games consecutively in Utah 11 times since 2003 (and all since 2021). They are 2-9 ATS in those games, 0-2 on back-to-backs.
I make this line Rockets -10.8. So, not a ton of value, and I’m not thrilled to try and get in front of the Rockets juggernaut.
This is a small play, but the spot is bad and the number is too high.
Pick: Jazz +12.5
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Suns vs. Lakers
I really want to fade LA here. I make this line Suns +2.7.
However, and you should take this under consideration, the Lakers are 10-1 SU and ATS with rest disadvantage under JJ Redick. They are awesome in those spots.
But instead I’ll stick with ol’ reliable. The over is 9-0 in Lakers home games this season, and 6-3 in Suns road games.
I make the total 239.
The Suns are a turnover-prone team, which the Lakers are good at creating despite a more malleable defense.
The Lakers’ offense is a juggernaut with Luka Doncic, and LeBron James coming back hasn’t slowed them down a bit. They are only getting better.
Phoenix ranks 24th defensively over its last four games. I’ll back the trend and my projection.
Pick: Over 234.5 (-110)
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