NBA Playoffs PrizePicks Player Props: How to Bet Ja Morant & Jrue Holiday (Saturday, May 7)
John Fisher/Getty Images. Pictured: Jrue Holiday.
- NBA's Saturday slate features two games: Warriors vs. Grizzlies and Bucks vs. Celtics.
- For PrizePicks players looking to parlay some player props, we see value on Milwaukee's Jrue Holiday and Memphis' Ja Morant.
- Check out Tyler Schmidt's full breakdown for Saturday below.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s slate in NBA Playoffs slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
NBA PrizePicks Parlay
Jrue Holiday Over 17.5 Points
I’m going to continue to ride Jrue Holiday’s points prop until it fails.
With Khris Middleton out, Holiday is the second option behind Giannis Antetokounmpo on this Bucks team. He can score in a variety of ways, and Holiday will need to stay aggressive in this series if the Bucks want to reach the Eastern Conference Finals.
Holiday has averaged 22 points per game in the first two games of this series while shooting just 37.5% from the field. He has attempted 20 field goal attempts in both games while averaging a 29.7% usage rate and playing 38 minutes per game, despite both games not being all that competitive early on.
Even with Middleton out, the Bucks are still slight home favorites, as they’ve looked just fine without him during the last five games.
Despite shooting poorly from the field, Holiday has still found a way to reach his points prop on volume alone, and that shouldn’t stop. He will hunt his shots early and often.
What really sets this PrizePicks prop apart from the others is the line is at 19.5 points with juice of -125 on the over at DraftKings.
Our model has Holiday projected for 20.3 points, which is also well over the line at DraftKings. Let’s hope for a better shooting night — but he should still get there.
Ja Morant Under 8.5 Assists
Taking an under on PrizePicks is always a little risky, but this line does seem a little high for Ja Morant. DraftKings has the line at 8.5 assists and -125 to the under, which is rare to see.
Morant is coming off of a 47-point game in which he also had eight rebounds and eight assists in the victory.
Fading Morant on the road has been a trend. He was pitiful on the road during the series against the Timberwolves. He shot 28.9% from the field and 10% from behind the arc.
Without Dillon Brooks, he may get a solid boost in usage rate, but this game could get out of hand with the Warriors as seven-point favorites.
Morant is averaging a career-low 6.7 assists per game this season but has increased his scoring steadily every single season.
He has also increased his facilitating during this postseason run, but there’s still value to be had at taking his under assists props tonight, especially with the Grizzlies playing on the road.
Morant is averaging 6.7 assists per game without Brooks in the lineup this season. Our model has Morant projected for 8.6 assists tonight, which is right at this prop line.
Until proven wrong, I will continue to fade Morant on the road. This under prop has the best value, but there are other ways to fade Morant.
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