NBA Props Today: Anthony Edwards, Quentin Grimes Lead Top 3-Point Bets (April 21)
David Berding/Getty Images. Pictured: Jamal Murray #27 of the Denver Nuggets interacts with Anthony Edwards #1 of the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Friday night’s NBA Playoffs slate is dripping with value in player prop markets we’re taking full advantage. I’m targeting two 3-point props in two of tonight’s Game 3 matchups: Cavaliers vs Knicks (8:30 p.m. ET on ABC) and Nuggets vs. Timberwolves (9:30 p.m. ET). Check out my picks for two undervalued 3-point shooters below..
|Time | TV||8:30 p.m. ET | ABC|
Quentin Grimes struggled in the first two games of this series on the road in Cleveland. However, he shoots much higher percentage at home in Madison Square Garden: Over 40% on 5.5 attempts. Since the All-Star break, he’s taken his shooting to another level, averaging 3.1 3-point makes on 45% shooting. The Knicks played 10 home games after the break and Grimes hit this number in eight of them.
His shot splits line up favorably too. During the season, 67% of his total shot attempts came from behind the arc. That increased to 72% after the break and he has only taken 3s in the playoffs with Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle choosing to operate inside the arc.
The question here is going to minutes: Will he play enough to top this number?
One of Grimes’ strengths is his perimeter defense and Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau would be wise to use him more as a 3-and-D option to open up the offense. Grimes averaged 24 minutes per game in Games 1 and 2, down from his 30 minutes during season. With MSG, the environment, the vibes, you’re going to see some Knicks role players play out of their mind. I’m banking on Grimes to do that for us.
The Pick: Quentin Grimes Over 1.5 3-pointers (-130)
|Time | TV||9:30 p.m. ET | ESPN|
Anthony Edwards is becoming a proven shotmaker in the playoffs. Game 1 seemed like an anomaly because he hasn’t been shy about shooting 3s in playoffs. The former No. 1 overall pick went 6-of-10 from beyond the arc in Game 2 and he’s hit this number in seven of his eight career playoff games.
If you include the three play-in games, he’s done this in nine of his 11 postseason games. The encouraging part about how he played against the Lakers in the Play-In game was the nine 3-point attempts.
Edwards leads the team in minutes and 3-Point attempts per game during regular season. In a do-or-die Game 3 against the Nuggets to avoid going down 0-3, I project him playing at least 40 min and taking close to 10 3-point attempts.
The only reason were getting this at -115 instead of where it should be at -140 is the Nuggets’ perimeter defense has been strong this season. But with Edwards, the talent and volume are too hard to ignore.
The Pick: Anthony Edwards Over 2.5 3-Pointers (-115)
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