NBA Sharp Betting Pick: Heat vs. Pacers Game 2 (Thursday, August 20)
Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Victor Oladipo
Heat vs. Pacers Betting Odds
|Heat Odds||-4 [BET NOW]|
|Pacers Odds||+4 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-180/+150 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||216.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
Victor Oladipo’s status looms large over this afternoon’s Heat-Pacers Game 2 matchup. After leaving Game 1 with an eye injury, Oladipo is still listed as questionable for Game 2 as of Thursday morning.
Head coach Nate McMillan did provide some positive news yesterday on the subject, making it seem more probable than not that Oladipo would be good to go today. But still, those betting this game at the moment are doing so without certainty regarding his status.
That hasn’t slowed down the sharps.
Heat vs. Pacers Sharp Betting Pick
Two days removed from a 12-point Heat victory in Game 1, most bettors are expecting something similar this afternoon. Sixty-one percent of tickets have landed on the Heat, who opened at -5 (even -5.5 at the earliest books) following that win.
But as we’re down to the final hours leading up to tip-off, Miami is also down to just a 4-point favorite.
Perhaps Oladipo’s status is playing some role in that movement, but it’s tough to know exactly how oddsmakers would’ve lined this game if he were 100% certain to play from the start. I mean, Game 1 closed with a higher spread (Miami -4.5) than what’s listed now.
A more obvious reason behind the movement has been the work of sharp bettors. Sports Insights Bet Signals, which track and record instances of market movement caused by sharp action, have been triggered five times on the Pacers since this line was first offered (most recently at +4.5).
Additionally, the 39% of bettors taking Indiana have generated 47% of actual money hitting the spread, meaning they’re the ones making bigger bets — the ones more likely to be made by pros.
As a result, sportsbooks have followed their sharper customers down to Indiana +4, which is where the market’s settled for much of the morning.
Sharp angle: Pacers (moved from +5 to +4) [Bet $20+ on the Pacers at PointsBet and Win $125 if they have at least one dunk]