The NBA playoffs resume with Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals this Saturday — and our betting expert Brandon Anderson is targeting a total of five picks in tonight's winner-take-all matchup between the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder.
Continue below for our NBA total & prop bets for Thunder vs Spurs Game 7 on Saturday, May 30.
NBA Total & Prop Bets for Thunder vs Spurs Game 7
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 8 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Spurs vs. Thunder Rebounds & Assists Escalator
The numbers speak for themselves. If you watched Game 6, you probably thought De'Aaron Fox looked awful, finishing with just five points on a miserable 1-of-9 shooting night across 26 minutes of action.
But forget the scoring; look at the secondary production. Fox still chipped in five rebounds and seven assists without committing a single turnover, making a significant impact with his floor presence alone.
During the first two games of this series, the Spurs turned the ball over at a costly 18% clip. Over the last four games, that metric plummeted to 14%, 11%, 12%, and 12%, which corresponds directly with Fox being back on the floor.
Fox is the "adult in the room" for this young Spurs team, settling down the half-court offense and keeping the pace right where San Antonio needs it.
He is averaging 6.5 assists on 11.0 chances (crossing over 5.5 assists in three of four games) and a surprisingly high 6.5 rebounds on 11.0 chances (crossing over 3.5 boards in a perfect 4-of-4 games). This is despite playing limited minutes under the 30-minute mark and sitting out large chunks of the fourth quarter.
I am taking Over 9.5 RA (-115 at bet365), a line he has cleared with ease in all four games he's played (totals of 13, 15, 12, and 12).
For the escalator, I will be taking 12+ RA (+205 at DraftKings), which is a perfect 4-of-4 in this series, and sprinkle a touch on 15+ RA (+750 at DraftKings).
If you want to get creative, a negative correlation parlay of Under 13.5 Points / 12+ RA pays out +485 at DraftKings, which could be a great way to exploit the recent trends if his scoring struggles continue.
Pick: De'Aaron Fox Over 9.5 Rebounds & Assists + Escalator
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Spurs vs. Thunder Points Escalator
Aside from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, is there a single player on the Oklahoma City roster expected to see more high-leverage floor time tonight than Alex Caruso?
The Thunder's coaching staff has meticulously managed his minutes all year, holding him back for exactly this type of critical spot.
In OKC’s two blowout losses in this series, Caruso was basically invisible, averaging just 14 and 21 minutes while posting a combined 5 points, rebounds, and assists. But in the other four highly competitive games, he logged a healthy 27.5 minutes per night and averaged an explosive 21 points, 3 rebounds, and 4 assists.
He cleared 15-plus points and hit at least three triples in all four of those matchups, dropping individual point totals of 31, 17, 15, and 22.
Caruso is the definition of a big-game impact player. Whether he is launching open spot-up looks from deep or aggressively attacking closeouts to score in semi-transition, he finds ways to put points on the board. I am happily betting Over 9.5 Points (-129 at Hard Rock).
Because we are anticipating a competitive Game 7 rather than a blowout, we will climb the escalator as well: 15+ Points pays +325, while a splash on 20+ Points sits at +1100.
Pick: Alex Caruso Over 9.5 Points + Escalator
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Spurs vs. Thunder Total Mineshaft
I already grabbed this line last night, and even though the market has experienced some upward tick toward 213, I am sticking to my historical principles.
When it comes to a Game 7 deep in the postseason, you always start your handicap with the under.
We are dealing with two elite defensive units and two offenses that have proven they can go ice-cold for prolonged stretches.
The historical trends spanning the last two decades since 2003 are staggering:
- Game 7s after Round 1: 26-12 to the under (68%), falling under the posted total by an average of 6.7 points per game.
- Conference Finals or NBA Finals Game 7s: 12-1 to the under, going under by 14.9 points per game.
- Game 7s between Top 3 Seeds: 17-2 to the under (90%), going under by 10.6 points per game, with the only over requiring overtime.
I'm going to trust the trends and defenses and take Under 213 at Caesars.
Because these games historically devolve into rock fights—averaging just 199.6 points over five matchups since the bubble—I'm also opening up the mineshaft: Under 200.5 Points (+261 at DraftKings).
The losing team in these elite Game 7s has crossed the 100-point threshold only once in 19 games, staying under 90 points in 15 of those contests. The average scoring output for the loser is a meager 88.3 points.
Rather than trying to pick a side, you can exploit this trend by sprinkling on Spurs Under 90.5 (+725 at Bet365) or Thunder Under 90.5 (+850 at Bet365).
Pick: Under 213 + Mineshaft
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Spurs vs. Thunder Points Prop
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. I have consistently faded Chet Holmgren’s point prop throughout this series, and the market’s refusal to properly adjust to his offensive ceiling gives us another nice opportunity to cash an under ticket.
Holmgren's scoring outputs in this series tell a bit of a lopsided story: 8, 13, 14, 10, 16, and 10 points. He has stayed comfortably under this line in five of the six matchups, averaging a modest 10.2 points per game.
The lone outlier was Game 5, which was fueled entirely by a bizarre, hyper-efficient first quarter where he dropped 8 quick points on a perfect 4-of-4 start from the floor.
Outside of that brief scoring burst, the interior looks simply have not been there for him when sharing the floor with Victor Wembanyama's absurd vertical gravity.
Holmgren averaged a meager three made two-pointers per game over the first four contests before striking gold with six makes in Game 5, only to immediately regress back to his baseline in Game 6.
Oddsmakers are leaving this line hanging at Under 14.5 Points (-135 at BetMGM), and while I don't expect a complete mineshaft drop, this number is a full bucket too high for his actual role.
Pick: Chet Holmgren Under 14.5 Points
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Spurs vs. Thunder Three-Pointers Prop
I did not expect to be giving out perimeter shooting props for Wembanyama in this spot, but this line is playable at 1.5.
Ever since Game 1, when the Thunder successfully crowded the paint and forced him out of his low-post comfort zone, Wemby has mostly shifted his offensive footprint to the perimeter.
He has unleashed a steady barrage from deep, averaging 6.5 three-point attempts per game over his last five outings. His individual make counts over those five games are three, two, three, zero, and four, meaning he has successfully cleared this 1.5-line in four of his last five appearances.
Because OKC is going to continue shrinking the floor and packing the paint to contain downhill drives in a game where rotation minutes will be maxed out, Wemby will have plenty of pick-and-pop opportunities to let it fly.
I'm not interested in investing in the Spurs moneyline, but if you like San Antonio tonight, Wemby three-pointers could be a nice parlay leg.
Pick: Victor Wembanyama Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
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