Nuggets vs Spurs Odds, Picks & Predictions | NBA Betting Preview (Friday, March 15)

Here's everything you need to know about Nuggets vs. Spurs on Friday, March 15 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.

The Spurs have found their best level of the season in recent weeks, and while it's only led to a handful of wins, they've been quite generous to those who have backed them against the spread. Now, the toughest test yet for this improving young team awaits in the Nuggets on Friday night at Frost Bank Center.

Can the Spurs ride this wave of momentum and their home crowd to success against an NBA Finals favorite? Let's break down Nuggets vs. Spurs odds and make a Nuggets vs. Spurs prediction against the spread.

It's been quite difficult to have any level of success against the Nuggets lately. After a short three-game losing streak, they've reeled off 10 wins in their last 11 games, showcasing their blistering offensive attack that led them to a title last year. Denver's second in the league in scoring efficiency in March, so despite continued indifference on defense, the points have come in bunches and overcome any weaknesses this team may have.

The Nuggets' defensive production has fallen off a bit in March by more than a point per 100 possessions, dropping them down to the bottom half of the NBA despite sitting 10th for the season. They've had a few minor injuries to deal with, but on the whole, it's hard to look past their declining performance at the rim, where Denver has allowed 66% of shots to fall, according to Cleaning the Glass. That said, it continues to defend the 3-point line quite well.

It's almost a little more concerning given the variance we see from week to week with shooting, but the good news here is that the Spurs' recent run, at least on offense, has been mainly fueled by a wealth of points coming from 3.

What's worked on offense for the Nuggets has been what's worked for the entirety of the season, which is excellence in shooting. Despite employing Nikola Jokic, very few of this team's points have come inside and Denver has maintained top-10 rankings in shooting from the mid-range and outside this month.

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The Spurs continue to defend at a league-average level, which, for a team with 14 wins and a plethora of disastrous showings, has to be seen as an overwhelming positive.

Ranking 27th over the course of the season with opponents knocking down 38.5% of looks, the Spurs have been the top 3-point defense in the NBA this month and for the better part of two months have been one of the best at keeping shooting numbers at bay.

The impressive thing about this is that if you look at San Antonio's recent schedule, this team has played one good team after another. It's had to play Golden State twice in addition to Minnesota, Indiana and Oklahoma City over the last eight games, all of which rank inside the top 10 in 3-point accuracy. So, this is certainly a figure that holds a lot of weight.

On the flip side, the Spurs have also been one of the worst shooting sides this season but have hit 40% of their looks from outside this month, according to Cleaning the Glass, shooting under 37% in just two of their last 10 games. The unfortunate news is that one of those games came last time out in a tight loss to the Rockets, though given they're the best 3-point defense in the NBA, it's hard to read too much into that.

With Victor Wembanyama sitting in the top 2% of all players in estimated defense impact, according to Dunks and Threes, and a strong perimeter defense, the Spurs should be well-positioned to once again raise some eyebrows against a quality opponent.

This run the Spurs have been on has been somewhat magical. Despite coming out with very few wins, they've managed to cover in eight of their last 11 contests and have done so against some of the best teams in the NBA. Having played some of the strongest offenses in the sport, they'll be ready for the challenge ahead on Friday.

Despite all the success around the perimeter on both sides of the ball, it seems oddsmakers are ready to stick a fork in the Spurs after they lost a game they were expected to win against a Rockets team that just lost Alperen Sengun to injury. I choose not to read too deeply into that one, however, considering Houston's excellence in stopping the 3 and its quality defense inside, which actually should get stronger by replacing a defensive liability in Sengun with Jock Landale.

With that, I think the Spurs have just as much of a chance here to once again stun a powerhouse offense as they have over the last few weeks. Denver's offensive success centers around shooting, and as discussed, the Spurs have done an excellent job in that regard. Despite that, however, a vast majority of the Nuggets' attempts have come at the rim, which has been the lone defensive strength of this team all season long given the presence of Wembanyama.

The Nuggets' offense has been red hot, but it should meet its match here. On the flip side, if those incredible shooting numbers return — which is likely against a very generous perimeter defense — I think the Spurs have a very real path to victory, a sentence I never figured I'd write a month ago.

Pick: Spurs +10.5 (-110; BetMGM or bet365)

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