Raptors vs. Warriors Odds, Pick, Prediction | NBA Betting Preview

Raptors vs. Warriors Odds, Pick, Prediction | NBA Betting Preview article feature image

Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors and Fred VanVleet #23 of the Toronto Raptors.

  • The Raptors and Warriors will reprise their matchup in the 2019 NBA Finals with a game at Chase Center Friday night.
  • The Warriors are home favorites, where they have been dominant this season.
  • Chris Baker breaks down the matchup and odds for Raptors vs. Warriors below.

Raptors vs. Warriors Odds

Raptors Odds+5
Warriors Odds-5
Over/Under235 (-110/-110)
Time10 p.m. ET
Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Toronto Raptors remain in California Friday for a matchup with the Golden State Warriors, looking to build off their recent win against the Sacramento Kings. The Warriors will also be looking to generate a win streak after a tough-earned win against a rival Memphis Grizzlies team.

Who holds the edge in this 2019 finals rematch? Let’s dive into how these teams matchup with each other and break down the Raptors vs. Warriors odds.

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors have finally started to string some decent wins together as they have won back to back games against the Knicks and the Kings. Overall, this team is on the outside looking in at the playoffs as they are stuck at 12th place in the Eastern Conference with a 22-27 record.

Stringing some sort of win-streak is imperative for this team’s playoff chances especially with trade rumors swirling and the deadline fast approaching. This front office needs some sort of sign that this team can compete for a championship and this is a great opportunity for the Raptors to make a statement.

Focusing on this Warriors matchup, this Raptors team should struggle to get to the rim as the Warriors defense ranks first in the NBA in opponent rim rate allowed (24.0%), according to Cleaning the Glass. The second-best rim rate defense is the Miami Heat and they allow 28.7% of opponent shot attempts to occur at the rim. Golden State is nearly 5% above the next closest team and they are about 10% above the league average rim rate allowed (33.5%).

This is an elite rim defense so I expect the Raptors to be forced to live in the mid-range and 3-point line. Golden State allows the most mid-range shots and they rank 20th in opponent 3-point attempt rate.

The Raptors rank seventh in mid-range rate but just 26th in mid-range accuracy so expect them to struggle to be efficient here. They are going to need big games out of guards Fred Vanvleet and Gary Trent Jr. but it’s hard to bank on their motivation/focus here given all of the trade rumors currently swirling around these two players.

The Raptors have been an excellent transition offense as they rank first in the NBA in transition points per 100 possessions. This will be strength on strength here as the Warriors rank as the 3rd best transition defense in the NBA.

One edge the Raptors do have here is a potential advantage at the free throw line as they rank 8th in offensive free throw rate on the year. This has been a huge problem for the Warriors defense as they rank 26th in opponent FT rate allowed. The Raptors need to attack and try to get guys like Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins in foul trouble.

Monitor Andrew Wiggins status, but if he is good to go that would be a huge boost for this Warriors defense. Ultimately, I expect the Raptors to struggle to generate great looks against this stout Warriors rim defense.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors have also had an uninspiring start to their 2022-2023 season as they rank just 8th in the West with a 24-24 record. This team seemed to be turning a corner and getting healthy with their dominant performance against the Celtics last Thursday but just as quickly we thought they were back, they crashed and burned, choking the game away in overtime.

This team is super high-variance given their league-leading 3-point rate and proclivity for turnovers. The Warriors currently rank 29th in turnover rate, according to Cleaning the Glass. This will need to be cleaned up against a Raptors defense that ranks first in the NBA in turnover rate (17.3%). The Warriors are 9-18 ATS (33.3%) when they turn it over greater than 15% of their possessions. The Warriors are handled the Raptors 126-110 the first time these two teams matched up back in December.

These were much different teams back then as each team was dealing with multiple injuries but still, the Warriors are exhibited a great process as they attempted nearly 80% of their shots either at the rim or behind the 3-point arc. That process should only be strengthened by Stephen Curry and I expect them to dominate from behind the 3-point line.

This is a dream matchup for the Warriors as the Raptors defense ranks 23rd in opponent 3-point attempt rate and 30th in corner 3-point attempt rate allowed. Zoom out and look at the Raptors rotation in the most basic terms; this team is big and slow. Their current rotation features two legit guards Fred Vanvleet and Gary Trent Jr, and then a plethora of bigs.

Their big rotation consists of Pascal Siakam, Scottie Barnes, Chris Boucher, Juancho Hernangomez, and Thaddeus Young. There are no other guards on the team getting meaningful minutes. This is the exact opposite roster construction you want to have when facing a fast-paced Warriors team that lives by the 3. This Toronto defense won’t be able to navigate all the off-ball movement and transition possessions and I expect the Warriors to dominate offensively.

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Raptors-Warriors Pick

This line doesn’t really make sense to me considering the rested Grizzlies closed around +2.5 on Wednesday. The Grizzlies have a nearly 4-point net-rating edge on the Raptors and they matchup better than them.

The Grizzlies also closed at +2.5 with Andrew Wiggins out of the lineup and I expect Wiggins to play here given that he is questionable designation is listed as (illness). I am not buying into any sort of late-season Raptors renaissance due to the amount of trade-rumors surrounding virtually every starter on their team. I believe in this Warriors team and expect them to make a run in the second half of the season. Their process is extremely sound and unlike the Raptors, they have actually shown how dominant they can be when healthy.

The Warriors starting five has a league-best +19.8 net-rating which places them a full +4.8 over the next best lineup in the league. This team is legitimate and the Raptors are fraudulent. The Warriors hold virtually every edge here and I expect them to exploit their edges and cover this number. I’ll gladly play the -4.5 as I believe this should be closer to -7.

Pick: Warriors -5 (-109)

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Doug Ziefel
Jun 23, 2024 UTC