Kevin Durant and the Rockets travel to Austin to face Victor Wembanyama’s Spurs in Friday’s Rockets vs. Spurs matchup. Whatever the result, tonight’s game will likely move some of the NBA’s biggest prediction markets, including MVP.
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Rockets vs. Spurs odds and how to watch
Kalshi’s game-line market has San Antonio favored at 64% over Houston at 36%, even though the Rockets already have a win on the board and the Spurs don’t. More than $105,000 has traded on that contract so far. It’s the second game of Prime Video’s season-opening doubleheader, following the Knicks’ trip to Boston earlier in the night.
| Date | Friday, October 23 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| Venue | Moody Center, Austin, TX |
| Streaming | Prime Video |
Wembanyama’s MVP odds after opening night
So much can shift from one game to the next. Wemby entered the season as the clear MVP favorite, trading near 35% on Kalshi before tip-off. Then the Thunder rolled past San Antonio 116-104, with Wemby missing his first 12 shot attempts and finishing with just 12 points, 13 rebounds and 6 blocks while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 32.
The slip shows up on Kalshi’s current board: Wemby is down to 31% (32¢ to buy yes, 69¢ to buy no). He’s still the favorite, but the drop is exactly why tonight’s game against Houston carries extra weight: all eyes will be on how he responds.
Anthony Edwards, meanwhile, jumped 9 points to 16% off a big night of his own. Gilgeous-Alexander also sits at 16%, with Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic tied at 13% and Giannis Antetokounmpo at 6%.
Polymarket tells a similar story: Wemby has fallen from a comfortable front-runner to 29%, with Gilgeous-Alexander at 16%, Jokic at 15% and Edwards at 13.7%.
Kevin Durant, Fred VanVleet and the Rockets’ reset
Houston’s opening night went the other way. Durant and Jabari Smith Jr. scored 30 points apiece as the Rockets routed Dallas 128-110, with Alperen Sengun adding 23 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists. But the bigger story was Fred VanVleet’s comeback at point guard after missing all of last season with a torn ACL: he finished with 6 points and 11 assists.
VanVleet isn’t the only one looking for a comeback: the Rockets want one of their own this season. Coming off a first-round playoff exit last spring, Houston wants this season to look different, and having VanVleet back alongside Durant and Sengun is the clearest sign of that so far.
Also Friday: Knicks at Celtics, both coming off opening-night losses
The early game carries its own opening-night hangover. Fresh off flooding the streets of New York with title celebrations, the Knicks fell 106-100 to a retooled Philadelphia team debuting King James and Jaylen Brown, with Jalen Brunson managing just 21 points on 6-of-19 shooting.
Boston lost too, watching a lead evaporate as Detroit closed the game on a 23-0 run to win 121-113; new Celtic Paul George, acquired this offseason, scored 38 points in his own debut. Both the Knicks and the Celtics will be chasing their first win of the season Friday at TD Garden.
Title odds: where the Spurs stand
San Antonio’s championship price barely moved after the loss to Oklahoma City. Kalshi had the Spurs around 22% to win it all before the season, just behind the Thunder at 23%.
Polymarket priced it almost the same way, with San Antonio at roughly 22% and Oklahoma City at 20%. Both markets still treat the Spurs-Thunder rivalry as the headline act in the West for the rest of the year, no matter what happens against Houston on Friday.
