The NBA grind continues tonight, and our Action Network staff has you covered from every angle. We've pooled our top analysis and broken down the board to bring you our favorite spreads, totals, and player props for today's slate.
Continue below for our NBA picks and predictions for Friday, October 23.
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NBA Best Bets for Friday, October 23
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Bulls vs. Bucks
By Matt Moore
This is a Bulls-centric cap. The Bucks scored pretty well against the Wizards and defended poorly. Their pace was moderate.
Chicago is the interesting side here. There are three things to figure out about their opening-night evisceration by the Raptors. Was that more about how good the Raptors are than how bad the Bulls are?
If the Bulls’ defense isn’t actually as bad as it looked, which was the worst in the league among all teams in their first games, then it’s possible to likely they defend well enough to force an under.
If the Bulls’ offense was as bad as it looked, then this probably goes under because they can’t even score on Milwaukee enough.
The outcome where the over hits is that the Bulls’ offense is better than it looked against Toronto (a top-end defense, so that’s likely) and their defense is just as bad.
Chicago shot 11% from 3-point range, of course they’ll score better. But they also missed tons of shots at the rim and played at the fastest pace in the league.
I make this total 231; still a high-scoring affair, but enough to bring it to the under.
This could be an up-and-down track meet, but the Bulls have athleticism and size defensively, while the Bucks have smarts and control.
Chicago had the No. 1 turnover rate in the league on Wednesday, which then caused them to try and run back to score because teams get stuck in that loop.
With a normal turnover rate (or even a slightly lower one), their pace slows somewhat.
Pick: Under 239.5 (-110)
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Knicks vs. Celtics
By Joe Dellera
Mitchell Robinson is going to be highly motivated going up against his former team in the Knicks. He is the type of player who takes these matchups personally, and I expect him to come out fired up.
I actually think he starts this game for the Celtics, and even though Joe Mazzulla can be a bit cagey about his center rotation, Robinson should easily see around 20 minutes regardless.
Robinson spent years studying how his former Knicks teammates miss their shots. He knows exactly where Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby tend to miss and how the ball comes off the rim, and he can use that intel to dominate the defensive glass against an identical New York roster.
My only minor concern here is that Boston is one of those teams that employs a "tagging up" strategy on the offensive glass—meaning they run to the back of their defensive assignment when a shot goes up rather than just crashing empty space.
That scheme can occasionally limit raw rebounding volume if multiple guys are swiping at the ball, but Robinson is such a dominant pure rebounder that it shouldn't hold him back too much.
This is a much better physical matchup for him against Karl-Anthony Towns. I love the value here for a player who will be hunting every single board against his old squad.
Pick: Mitchell Robinson Over 6.5 Rebounds (-130)
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Timberwolves vs. Magic
By Jim Turvey
Under head coach Sean Sweeney, the Magic have pushed their three-point attempt rate way up, and they are actively encouraging their shooters to let it fly. Desmond Bane and Tristan da Silva in particular have been aggressively chucking from beyond the arc.
Bane knocked down three triples on 10 attempts in the opener against Atlanta, and while the pace of that specific game was insane, the underlying volume is clearly part of their new philosophy.
Franz Wagner looked visibly banged up in the opener, which caused his minutes to be interrupted. If Franz's minutes or usage take even a slight dip, that only puts more offensive responsibility and shot volume onto Bane's shoulders.
While Paolo Banchero had an awesome game and might take a few more shots himself, Bane is firmly entrenched as the primary perimeter floor spacer.
Charlotte plays at more of a middle-of-the-pack pace, but they are dealing with several injuries and present a decent matchup for opposing shooters looking to get clean looks.
This is exactly the kind of prop that hits the board early in the season, and once the sportsbooks fully adjust to how fast and three-point-heavy this Sweeney offense actually is, the plus-money value will vanish.
I don't think we will be getting plus-money on just three made triples for Desmond Bane for much of the year, so jumping on it now is a great early-season angle.
Pick: Desmond Bane Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+114)
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Hawks vs. Hornets
By Matt Moore
Atlanta’s win over the Magic was an exciting one, going down to the wire against a divisional opponent.
The Hawks' defense wasn't very good against Orlando, but their offense saved the day. Now they’re on the road again for another one.
The Hornets had a routine win over the Nets to open the season, but I liked the way they played.
The challenge with the Hornets is how they win the math game by taking threes and preventing yours, and then their ability to crash the glass with their myriad bigs. They have so many good frontcourt players, while Atlanta has a bit of a size problem down low.
I make the Hornets just one-point 'dogs in this matchup, and I think Charlotte continues to surprise the people who wrote them off when LaMelo Ball was traded.
Pick: Hornets +2.5 (-110)
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Pistons vs. Heat
By Matt Moore
I make the Pistons favorites here. Miami was embarrassed in what was supposed to be the glorious opening of the Giannis era. But Miami’s problems weren’t just that Anthony Edwards was a flamethrower.
Miami played a ton of drop coverage, which was baffling. You have Bam and Giannis, why not play aggressive and switch every screen?
You do that because you’re concerned that your guys will get tired with the outrageous pace they are playing at — and you don’t want to play a tiring, physical style against the Pistons.
Detroit continues to be underrated despite winning 60 games last season. They have the muscle on the inside to combat the Heat’s size, and they are athletic enough to handle Miami’s breakneck pace, to the point of diminishing returns.
The Heat have too much to figure out and too weak of a bench to be favored here.
Pick: Pistons Moneyline (-115)
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Pelicans vs. Jazz
By Joe Dellera
I loved how Jeremiah Fears looked in that first game for the Pelicans. It took me a quick second to come around on him, but he is quite good—he is talented, skilled, and very crafty.
I always love crafty guards, and he has some real double-move craftiness to him that translates perfectly to the NBA level.
Fears' minutes looked artificially lower in their opener against the Pacers, but that box score is misleading because he dealt with early foul trouble while playing in the starting lineup. He should easily push into the high-20s for minutes in this second game.
Fears had 12 PRA in the opener while shooting an abysmal 20 percent from the field and from three-point range, and he got very unlucky on potential assists and rebounds that didn't convert.
If his teammates hit a few more shots, he easily clears a higher baseline.
Now, he gets an incredibly soft matchup against my beloved Jazz, whose backcourt defense just looked atrocious while giving up a massive game to Ty Jerome.
The Jazz struggle to contain quick, penetrating guards, and Fears is insanely quick getting to the basket while also being capable of getting his shot up from the perimeter.
Between the heavy expected minutes, positive shooting regression, and a highly exploitable Utah defense, this is a fantastic spot to grab his over.
Pick: Jeremiah Fears Over 19.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-102)
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Rockets vs. Spurs
By Joe Dellera
I think Jabari Smith is primed for a monster year, especially with Fred VanVleet returning to the fold.
Having VanVleet as a true stabilizing point guard is a phenomenal thing for Smith because he no longer has to force the issue and constantly create his own shot.
One of the biggest problems for Houston last year was simply struggling to get certain players the ball in advantageous situations, and Jabari suffered from that lack of structure.
VanVleet is going to consistently set him up for success and get him the basketball exactly where he needs it. He already dropped 30 points in 36 minutes during the opener against Dallas, and that volume is likely sustainable because Ime Udoka clearly trusts him and is playing him a ton of minutes.
This matchup against the Spurs is exploitable from a size perspective. With De'Aaron Fox on the injury report, San Antonio is likely going to run a smaller guard lineup around Victor Wembanyama.
Wembanyama is almost certainly going to be tasked with covering Alperen Sengun down low, which leaves undersized defenders like Dylan Harper or Julian Champagnie trying to contest Jabari Smith on the perimeter — and that is a huge mismatch.
Smith is going to be able to shoot right over the top of those smaller guards. I expect him to clear 13.5 points tonight.
Pick: Jabari Smith Over 13.5 Points (-110)
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Clippers vs. Lakers
By Ryan Minion
In another regional battle, I will be looking to the Lakers and Clippers for my next Friday night selection as the two Los Angeles foes prepare to duke it out at Crypto.com Arena.
While the first matchup featured two teams seeking their first win of the season, both Los Angeles squads got off to a phenomenal start to their respective 2026-27 NBA season, with both winning by over 20 points.
Despite the Lakers currently sitting as a massive 9.5-point favorite to win on Friday night, I think that the organization’s “brand” value and Luka Doncic-stardom are somewhat baked into betting markets, especially facing a smaller-market young Clippers team who, from a general public’s perspective, lack a true superstar — on that note, this Clippers team has some extremely young and talented players who are in prime positions to succeed this season.
The Clips’ backcourt features Darius Garland, who was never really put in the best position to develop into his full potential when playing for Cleveland, and that is exactly what he has been given in LA.
Not only did Garland score 30 points in the opener, but his backcourt-mate Keaton Wagler was spectacular in his first-ever game playing in the NBA. Like Garland, Keaton has a beautiful three-point stroke, which was put on full display as he knocked down three triples in the Clippers’ season-opening victory.
On the other hand, the Lakers are still looking for a new identity since LeBron left the team and there was some definitive turmoil throughout the media regarding Luka and his behavior towards other players.
Luka is also coming off a 38-point near-triple-double, and I expect this young Clippers squad to really play with a chip on their shoulder following the team’s first victory.
The Clippers also have some elite perimeter defenders that feature the likes of Derrick Jones and Kris Dunn, both of whom could definitely apply some relentless pressure when Luka has the ball in his hands.
Due to the fact that Bradley Beal and Brandon Ingram remain doubtful to play, I think betting markets are slightly overreacting to a young squad that still has potential to pull off the upset in one of the first regular-season NBA games.
In a Rui Hachimura revenge spot with the city of Los Angeles on the line, I think we are getting a great number on the Clippers to win on Friday night at +310.
Pick: Clippers Moneyline (+300)
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