Spurs vs. Lakers Betting Picks, Betting Odds & Predictions: Will LeBron & Co. Cover Double Digits at Home?
Logan Riely/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers.
Spurs at Lakers Picks, Betting Odds & Predictions
- Spread: Lakers -12
- Over/Under: 226.5
- Time: 10 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: TNT
Odds as of Tuesday and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
As dominant as the Los Angeles Lakers have been this season, they actually have more losses at home (6) than on the road (5). They welcome the scrappy San Antonio Spurs into Staples Center on Tuesday and are double-digit favorites.
Will the Lakers cover this huge number? Our NBA crew previews how they plan to bet the matchup below.
Betting Trend to Know
Lakers opened as 12-point favorites against the Spurs. LA is 7-9-1 against the spread as double-digit favorites this season. San Antonio is 2-0 ATS as a double-digit dog in 2019-20 — John Ewing
Bryan Mears: An Intriguing Over/Under
This line seems a bit surprising. The Lakers are 12-point favorites at home against the Spurs, who have been pretty solid lately. In their last three games, they beat a good Jazz team, blew out the Hornets and then barely lost to the Clippers at full strength on the road.
Over the past two weeks, they have a +2.6 Net Rating despite dealing with some injury concerns. Meanwhile, the Lakers are at just a +4.6 mark and have lost two of their last three.
That said … the Lakers are just a really tough matchup for the Spurs. They blitz the rim with their size — playing all three of LeBron James, Anthony Davis and JaVale McGee/Dwight Howard at the same time is a tall task for any defense. And the Spurs have been bad protecting the rim this season, ranking in the bottom-10 in that regard.
The Lakers won the first two meetings — both in San Antonio — and definitely dominated inside. In that first meeting, the Lakers shot 72.4% at the rim and 55.6% on short mid-rangers — the paint area.
There has interestingly been little action on the spread so far in this one; we haven’t tracked any steam moves on either side. The Spurs are actually getting the majority of bets (55%) and money (57%), which is a bit surprising considering the Lakers are usually a public team. The spread has moved a bit, but it’s now back at the opening number.
I think the better value is probably on the over/under. We have tracked a steam move on the under, causing it to move a couple points from opening. That side is getting 54% of the bets but 65% of the money.
Looking at the first two meetings between these teams, it makes sense: The first one was especially slow, with both teams operating mostly in the halfcourt. In the second one, the Lakers played slow, and both teams really struggled offensively, ranking in the bottom-15 percentile on offense.
But thus is the difficulty of handicapping Spurs games. We know what that they are a frisky team that has a terrible offensive shot profile, relying almost solely on mid-rangers. Sometimes they hit everything, like they did against the Jazz the other day, posting a 125.7 Offensive Rating — but sometimes they don’t given those shots are inefficient.
I would lean toward the under given the potential pace, tough shots and quality of the Lakers defense. I especially lean toward the first-half under.
Matt Moore: Don’t Ignore the Spurs Tonight
This is a matchup between the No. 7 offense (Lakers) vs. the No. 9 offense (Spurs) over the last 15 games. The Lakers defense is excellent, but the Spurs are shooting more threes. Not a lot, but more. They’re both shooting the three exceptionally well.
The Spurs have only lost eight games by double digits this season. I don’t love this side, but San Antonio’s also 4-1 on the second night of a back-to-back and had no travel last night. Give me the Spurs to cover the double digits.
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.