The second round of the NBA playoffs resumes with a pair of critical Game 4s this Sunday. Our staff of betting experts dug into the latest NBA odds and identified four best bets for today's games, including picks for 76ers vs. Knicks and Spurs vs. Timberwolves.
Let's dive into our NBA picks, predictions, and best bets for Sunday, May 10.
NBA Picks, Predictions, Best Bets for Sunday, May 10
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
| 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Knicks vs. 76ers Moneyline & Spread Picks
By Joe Dellera
I'm leaning into a Knicks Escalator in Game 4 today, as all signs point toward the 76ers reaching their breaking point.
After dominant New York wins by margins of 39, 6, and 14 points, the narrative has shifted from a competitive series to one where the wheels are falling off for Philly.
No team in NBA history has ever successfully overcome an 0-3 deficit, and given the current state of the 76ers, a miraculous comeback feels out of reach. Joel Embiid has looked diminished on the court as he struggles to power through his health issues.
While Game 3 was theoretically the "punch back" spot for Philadelphia to protect their home court, the Sixers failed to capitalize, and the energy in that building could turn toxic quickly in Game 4 if New York builds an early lead.
The Knicks are keenly aware that securing a sweep today would provide them with a huge rest advantage heading into the Eastern Conference Finals, so expect New York to come out locked in to finish the job.
Pick: Knicks ML (-120) / -9.5 (+270) / -19.5 (+870)
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Knicks vs. 76ers Player Prop
By Matt Moore
I’m taking Karl-Anthony Towns Over 5.5 assists in Game 4. The market hasn't caught up to the schematic shift we’re seeing in New York yet.
Towns has cleared this line in six straight playoff games and has been perfect to the over every time he’s stepped on the floor in this series.
Towns has always been an elite passing big, but in this Knicks system, he’s truly starting to understand the mechanisms he can exploit to punish Philadelphia’s defense.
The Knicks aren't just using him as a floor-spacer; they are putting him in "hub" positions—at the elbow and the top of the key—where he can read the floor while the Sixers scramble to contain Jalen Brunson. When Philly hedges or doubles Brunson, KAT is the release valve, and he’s making the next pass with precision.
Towns notched 7 assists in only 26 minutes of action in Game 3. That kind of efficiency tells you this isn't a fluke.
The Knicks are putting Towns in high-low actions and delay-sets that force the Sixers' bigs to choose between protecting the rim or sticking to KAT, and more often than not, it’s leading to open buckets for New York’s cutters.
Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 5.5 Assists (+114)
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Spurs vs. Timberwolves Prop Bet
By Joe Dellera
I’m going to run it back with Naz Reid Over 11.5 Points in Game 4 tonight. This has been a steady source of value for us all series, and I see no reason to hop off the train now.
Naz is continuing to see extended run as the centerpiece of the Wolves' small-ball lineups that are finding success against the Spurs' second unit.
The consistency is exactly what you want to see in the postseason: Reid has dropped 12, 11, and 18 points in the first three games of this series. He’s found his rhythm, and the offensive volume is there to support this number.
It also helps that Ayo Dosunmu clearly doesn’t look 100% as he deals with a lingering injury, which naturally funnels more usage toward Naz.
When you look back at his regular-season matchups against San Antonio, he’s averaged 14.6 PPG in games where he sees meaningful minutes.
Pick: Naz Reid Over 11.5 Points (-120)
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Spurs vs. Timberwolves Spread & Moneyline Picks
By Matt Moore
I’m backing Minnesota one more time to even this series. I stayed away from the full-game side in Game 3, but the situation has shifted. While the historical trends for home 'dogs down 2-1 are lukewarm—hitting at just a 47.8% ATS clip since 2003—the eye-test tells a different story.
It took a transcendent, superstar performance from Victor Wembanyama combined with another wretched shooting night from Minnesota for the Spurs to escape Game 3 with a win. That level of shooting variance is due for a correction.
While I don't believe the Wolves can win three out of the next four to take the series, I do believe they have enough "dawg" in them to avoid a reverse sweep.
Anthony Edwards looked revitalized in Game 3, and though there’s a risk his physical burst is fading, the Wolves won't go down without a fight.
If you’re wary of the full-game lines, teams down 2-1 cover the first-half spread at a 57% rate, but ultimately, I’m riding with the Timberwolves to send this back to San Antonio tied at two games apiece.
Pick: Timberwolves +4.5 (-110) / Moneyline (+155)
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