The Oklahoma City Thunder (3-2) and Denver Nuggets (2-3) will face off in Game 6 of their second round NBA Playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Thunder are 4.5-point favorites over the Nuggets on the spread, with the over/under set at 217.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -180 favorite to win outright, while Denver is +150 to pull off the upset.
The Nuggets fired their coach, they fired their general manager, they only have seven rotation players, and now they are facing elimination against the team with the best point differential in NBA history in Game 6 tonight.
Can the young juggernaut Thunder finish off the the three-time MVP Nikola Jokic? Or will the Denver air put a damper on Oklahoma City's hopes of a Western Conference Finals appearance?
Let's get into my Thunder vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA picks for Thursday, May 15.
Thunder vs Nuggets Prediction, Picks for NBA Playoffs Game 6
My Thunder vs. Nuggets Game 6 best bet is on the Under at 217.5 total points, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best price using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Under 217.5 (-115)
Thunder vs Nuggets Betting Odds for Thursday, May 15
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 217.5 -105 / -115 | -180 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 217.5 -105 / -115 | +150 |
- Thunder vs. Nuggets spread: Thunder -4.5
- Thunder vs. Nuggets over/under: 217.5 total points
- Thunder vs. Nuggets moneyline: Thunder -180, Nuggets +150
- Thunder vs. Nuggets best bet: Under 217.5 (-115)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Game 6 Preview
I was so ready to load up on Denver moneyline here.
Before the series, I thought they would split the first two games in Oklahoma City, with the Nuggets losing the first matchup because they were coming off a first-round Game 7 (whoops!), then split the next two in Denver, then the Thunder would win Game 5, Denver would win Game 6, and then ultimately we’re at a coin flip.
And now, here we are.
I make this line Thunder -3, meaning that by my power rating shows 1.5 points of value on Denver.
Yet, here I am, staying away. Why? The spot is terrible.
Game 6 underdogs at home facing elimination are 10-31 straight up and 13-28 (32%) ATS since 2003. If the 'dog loses the game outright, they are 3-28 ATS. On the other hand, they are 10-0 SU if they cover the spread.
If you’re betting Oklahoma City, lay the points. If you’re betting Denver, bet them to win outright.
So, why am I not betting on the Thunder?
It’s Jokic, at home, with a team that has possessed alligator blood for his entire tenure, in the altitude, coming off a loss.
The Nuggets are 16-12 SU and 17-11 ATS with Jokic and Murray when coming off a loss in the playoffs.
Here are the margins for Jokic's elimination games in the playoffs: 8, 6, 7, 10, 4.
There's nothing you could do to make me bet this spread.
Thunder vs Nuggets Game 6 Betting Predictions
Under 217.5 (-115)
Game 6 is a sneaky good spot to bet the under. Everyone knows about the Game 7 under trends to the point that it’s priced into the market.
But, what about Game 6?
Game 6s are 54-39-3 (58%) to the under since 2003 after the first round. When a team is a home underdog, the under goes to 34-18-2 across all rounds (65%).
The Nuggets have managed to muck up these games whenever they need them, and Oklahoma City's defense continues to scratch up Denver's high-powered offense like cats on the furniture.
There are specific overs I like tonight, but I’ll play the combined under.
Michael Porter Jr. Over 9.5 Points (+100)
Porter Jr. was given a numbing shot for his very badly injured shoulder before the third matchup of this series and had a great game.
But he’s unable to take the medication repeatedly, and has gone under in the past two games.
The Nuggets' season is on the line tonight, so I’m expecting him to receive another treatment, and for MPJ to look much more like an NBA shooter in Game 6.
Aaron Gordon Over 9.5 Rebounds + Assists (-120)
Gordon has had a lot of rebound chances in this series with role players missing more on the road, and he should have more chances again in a home Game 6 tonight against the Thunder.
He’s also in a prime position for passing as the small-ball point-center for Denver's offense.
Thunder vs Nuggets Best Bets for Game 6
- Under 217.5 (-115)
- Michael Porter Jr. Over 9.5 Points (+100)
- Aaron Gordon Over 9.5 Rebounds + Assists (-120)
For the latest on NBA injuries, be sure to check out our NBA Injury Report page.
