The Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder will face off in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Thunder are 7.5-point favorites over the Timberwolves on the spread, with the over/under set at 217.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -295 favorite to win outright, while Minnesota is +240 to pull off the upset.
The Wolves are rested and ready, and their profile is a lot better than their resume suggests. The Thunder feel like it’s their moment, but Minnesota has unresolved business in this department.
It’s time for the conference finals. Let's get into my Timberwolves vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks on Tuesday, May 20.
Timberwolves vs Thunder Prediction for Western Conference Finals Game 1
My Thunder vs. Timberwolves Game 1 best bet is on Minnesota to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best price using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Timberwolves +7.5 (-115)
Timberwolves vs Thunder Odds, Picks for Tuesday, May 20
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 217.5 -115o / -105u | +240 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 217.5 -115o / -105u | -295 |
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder spread: Thunder -7.5
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder over/under: 217.5 total points
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder moneyline: Timberwolves +240, Thunder -295
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder best bet:Timberwolves +7.5 (-115)
Timberwolves vs Thunder Preview for Western Conference Finals Game 1
It took seven grueling games, but the Thunder did it. They knocked off Denver, and now they’re in the conference finals. What a sigh of relief.
Except, now they face a Wolves team that beat the Nuggets in a long seven-game series last year before losing in the conference finals. Funny how that works.
I'm backing Minnesota in Game 1 tonight. I make this line Thunder -4.9 with both teams fully healthy.
Even with Oklahoma City's performance in the first round against Memphis and in Game 7 against Denver, I can’t get to this number.
Then, there’s the spot.
Home favorites coming off a Game 7 are 10-12 SU and 6-15-1 (29%) since 2003. In the conference finals, home favorites off a Game 7 are 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS.
The Nuggets and Warriors just beat that trend in the previous round, but I’m willing to go against the Thunder here.
Regarding the total, I make this number 212.5. This series projects as ugly, difficult, and stilted. Both teams’ biggest strength is their defense.
The Timberwolves have the ability to lock down the paint like Dallas did against Oklahoma City last season. The Thunder have the defenders to contain Anthony Edwards as the primary engine.
The problem is that the trends are strongly in favor of the over. For teams coming off a Game 7 as a home favorite, the over is 15-7.
I want to get a sense for the pace of this series, and whether or not the Timberwolves can contain their turnovers before betting the total.
Timberwolves vs Thunder Game 1 Betting Predictions
Timberwolves +7.5 (-115)
The Timberwolves match up well with Oklahoma City.
The Wolves can counter the Thunder’s ability to force turnovers with their three-point efficiency, and they are the best defense that Oklahoma City has faced so far in these playoffs.
Chris Finch is 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS in Game 1s.
With the Thunder in such a bad spot and Minnesota catching two possessions, I’ll grab the points with the Wolves in Game 1 tonight.
Jalen Williams Over 4.5 Assists (-135) / Over 25.5 Points + Assists (-104)
Williams averaged 13 potential assists per game against the Wolves this season.
He generated seven assists against Julius Randle, his primary matchup.
The Wolves will collapse the lane, and Williams is great at kicking out of drives against that kind of help.
Timberwolves vs Thunder Best Bets for Game 1
- Timberwolves +7.5 (-115)
- Jalen Williams Over 4.5 Assists (-135)
- Jalen Williams Over 25.5 Points + Assists (-104)
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Thunder vs. Timberwolves Betting Trends
