Trail Blazers vs. Suns NBA Betting Odds, Pick, Prediction:

Trail Blazers vs. Suns NBA Betting Odds, Pick, Prediction: article feature image

Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Paul, Devin Booker

  • Updated Suns vs. Blazers odds list Phoenix as a 5.5-point favorite in Wednesday night NBA action, up from the opener of -5, with the total at 223.5.
  • Tyler Schmidt is focused on the total, as Portland plays its sixth game and 10 nights and is the second leg of a back-to-back.
  • Get his full Blazers vs. Suns pick and preview below.

Trail Blazers vs. Suns Odds

Trail Blazers Odds+5.5
Suns Odds-5.5
Time9 p.m. ET
TVNBA League Pass
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

After a close loss last night, the Portland Trail Blazers need to pick themselves up and find a way to get their first road win of the season. It won't come easy as they travel to the desert to face the Phoenix Suns, who have won five straight games and are finding their groove.

In their previous meeting early in the season, the Blazers won convincingly at home against the Suns 134-105. Times have changed, and we still haven't hit Dame Time.

One would think with All-Stars Damian Lillard and Devin Booker on the court this total would be higher than 223.5 points, but both are struggling to find their shots to start the season.

Both the Suns and Trail Blazers rank in the top 10 in Pace this season. Will that be enough to secure the over in this matchup? Let's dive in and find out.

Will it Finally Be Dame Time for the Blazers?

Playing on the road has brought out the worst in these Portland Trail Blazers. They are 0-5 on the road, both straight-up and against the spread, and are one of three teams without a road win.

The Blazers lost last night on the road to the Los Angeles Clippers, 117-109. Tonight will be the Blazers third time playing a back-to-back in the last 10 days. On the second leg of the back-to-back, the under has hit in both of their games and they covered one of those two spreads.

Damian Lillard has struggled this season to say the least. He is shooting a career-low 36.5% from the field and 25.5% from 3-point range. His 19.3 points per game is the second lowest since his rookie season and the second season in which he hasn't averaged 20 or more points. The one positive is Lillard is obviously good enough to understand when his shot isn't falling and to get his teammates more involved. He averaging a career-high 8.3 assists per game.

This matchup against the Suns could actually be beneficial to Lillard and the Trail Blazers outside shooting. The Suns so far this season are allowing the third most made 3-pointers at 14.3 per game and the second best percentage at 38.7% per game. It's time for Lillard to throw back the clock to Dame time.

In their blowout win over the Suns earlier this season the Trail Blazers shot a season-high 54.3% from the field and 42% from 3-point range. They made 21 3-pointers. They currently have the second most 3-pointers made at 14.6 per game. This matchup sets up quite well for them.

However, they have shot much worse on the road this season. Their 3-point percentage drops 10%.

Can the Suns Keep the Momentum?

After a slow start to the season, the Phoenix Suns have won their last five games, tied for the longest current winning streak. Despite scoring only 11 fourth quarter points, the Suns held on the beat the Kings in their last game by five points behind a 24-point game from Cam Payne.

The Suns will be without center Deandre Ayton once again tonight for the third time in four games. The Suns have had no problem in his absence however as they have covered the spread in four straight.

JaVale McGee and Frank Kaminsky have been fantastic without Ayton in the lineup. Without Ayton, McGee is averaging 10.0 points and 5.7 rebounds per game while Kaminsky is averaging 14.3 points and 4.7 rebounds per game. Both have stepped up in a big way in those three games.

In six home games thus far, the Suns have a record of 4-2 and have covered the spread in half of those games. Four of those six games have gone under, and six of their nine games overall have gone under.

In his 17th season, Chris Paul continues to be an incredible floor general. His 11.3 assists per game not only lead the league by a wide margin, but is the second best total in his career. That unfortunately has also led to a career-low in points with 13.2 per game, field goal attempts with 9.6 per game, and even usage rate with 18.4%. I'm not sure what the best version of Paul is for this team, but I do think he needs to be more aggressive than he's been.

With Paul being the facilitator, it hasn't necessarily led to a great Devin Booker start to the season like it should. Despite a career-high in field goal attempts with 19.7 per game, Booker is only averaging 23.8 points per game which is his lowest mark over the past five seasons. It's not too surprising after seeing these numbers, that the under has hit at a 67% rate for the Suns so far.

Trail Blazers-Suns Pick

Their earlier meeting went way over the total at 239 total points, despite the line closing at 229 points. The total is far lower tonight at 223.5 points, but I think that is for good reason. The Trail Blazers are playing on a back-to-back and their sixth game in 10 days, and the star players from both teams are in a shooting slump.

The Trail Blazers could come out desperate trying to find their first road win of the season so I'm not too fond of taking either side of the line tonight. I would much rather focus on the total and take the under 223.5 points in this game and hope the shooting woes continue on both sides.

Lastly the Pace of this matchup is an extremely important topic here. Like I mentioned above, both teams rank in the top 10 in Pace this season. However, the Suns have been a much slower paced team at home (100.76) compared to on the road (102.54). Also, the Trail Blazers playing on no rest days this season have a pace of 97.34, which would rank in the bottom five in the league.

I would take under on the total points down to 222 tonight. The best value we are seeing is on BetMGM right now, but also make sure to shop the lines.

Pick: Under 223.5 at BetMGM

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Nick Sterling
May 17, 2024 UTC