Warriors vs Kings Odds See Big Shift Following Reported De’Aaron Fox Injury

Warriors vs Kings Odds See Big Shift Following Reported De’Aaron Fox Injury article feature image

Via Alex Goodlett/Getty Images. Pictured: De’Aaron Fox #5 of the Sacramento Kings.

Following Game 4 of the NBA playoffs series between the Warriors and the Kings, the series appeared to be headed toward a classic three-game finale, but that may no longer be the case.

NBA insider Shams Charania reported on Monday afternoon that Kings point guard De'Aaron Fox sustained a fractured index finger in his shooting hand during Sunday's game 4. He is doubtful to play in Game 5.

As one would expect, the news created a big shift in Warriors vs Kings odds, both in terms of Game 5 and the series price.

Depending on the sportsbook, the line for game 5 was originally within a point in either direction, but now that number is between 3.5 and 4 in favor of the Warriors.

In terms of the series price, the Warriors were -180 favorites at DraftKings, but they now sit at -250.

Fox was having a great series and was the most influential player for the Kings. Through the first four games, the former Kentucky guard averaged 31.5 points, seven assists and six rebounds in 38.5 minutes per game.

He even battled through the injury in Game 4, as Charania noted that the injury was actually sustained in the middle of the fourth quarter.

The reported injury also had an impact on title odds for each team. Sacramento has dropped all the way down to a market-best price of 55-1 while the Warriors can be had at 9-1. Prior to the news, the Kings were only as long as 40-1 and the Warriors were 10-1. Game 5 is set to be played on Wednesday.

De'Aaron Fox Injury Analysis

Brandon Anderson: Fox has been brilliant these playoffs, arguably one of the postseason MVPs so far. He’s played 38.5 MPG for the Kings, averaging 31.5 points along with six rebounds, seven assists, and 2.5 steals a game. That’s a lot of production to replace — and a lot of minutes, for a rotation that’s already only featuring seven guys for the most part.

Davion Mitchell started all nine games Fox missed this year. He played 29 MPG and averaged 9.9 points, 4.0 assists, and 1.2 turnovers a game. Mitchell has been terrific this series, especially defensively against Curry. He probably spikes from 24 to at least 36 MPG if Fox misses any games.

Mitchell never played 36 minutes this season, but he had 11 games over 36 minutes last year — with most of them notably at the end of the season with both Fox and Sabonis out. He averaged 20.1 points, 9.8 assists, and 3.3 turnovers a game with at least seven dimes every game and nine or more assists in 64% of them. Obviously he’ll have significantly lower usage with Sabonis and the rest of the Kings out there, but that uptick is notable.

Beyond Mitchell, we probably see four-to-eight more minutes apiece for Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter, both of whom will need to pick up the scoring slack. That still leaves about 15 minutes up for grabs, and Matthew Dellavedova is out injured too, so that could mean more from Terence Davis or others further down the bench.

If Fox is out, Mitchell overs look like a play — points, assists, and/or turnovers. Monk or Huerter points overs could be pivots too.

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Nick Sterling
Jul 23, 2024 UTC